论文总字数：19305字

摘 要

全球范围内迅速蔓延的新型冠状病毒疫情在严重影响世界人民生命安全的同时，也蛮横冲击着各个行业，国内水运业市场也正遭受着严峻的考验。在对外贸易领域，中国对外贸易受新型冠状病毒影响1-2月呈两位数大幅下跌。国内大量企业、商家停工，出口贸易暴跌17.2%，全国八大港口集装箱量同比下降19.8%，全国进出境船舶仅为54256艘次，同比下降20.2%^[1]，可见疫情对国内水运业和国际贸易需求的巨大影响。

本文在理论分析的基础上，结合WTO和国家统计局的最新统计数据以及各国目前采取的防疫措施，统计分析中国对外贸易和国内水运业的现状，用疫情前后数据变化趋势分类讨论和研究疫情对水运业的影响，并结合世卫组织前几次宣布的PHEIC情况进行类比分析，对分析疫情对水运业的影响和我国如何采取应对措施有较高的借鉴价值。

与其他文章相比，本文的创新点即为本文不仅分析新冠疫情对国内水运业的影响，同时分析研究国内水运业如何利用疫情窗口期抓住机提升企业自身竞争力和积极占领开拓新市场，疫情期间化被动为主动，改善疫情对国内水运业的消极影响。

关键词：新型冠状病毒、疫情、水运业影响、经济影响

Abstract：

The rapid spread of the new coronavirus epidemic worldwide has seriously affected the lives and safety of people around the world, and it has also hit various industries arbitrarily. The domestic water transport industry market is also being severely tested. In the field of foreign trade, China's foreign trade suffered a double-digit decline from January to February due to the impact of the new coronavirus. A large number of domestic enterprises and businesses stopped working, export trade plunged 17.2%, the container volume of the eight major ports in the country decreased by 19.8% year-on-year, and the number of ships entering and leaving the country was only 54256 ships, a decrease of 20.2% year-on-year Statistical Report, It can be seen that the epidemic has a huge impact on the domestic water transportation industry and international trade demand.

Based on the theoretical analysis, this article combines the latest statistics of WTO and National Bureau of Statistics and the current epidemic prevention measures taken by various countries, statistically analyzes the current situation of China's foreign trade and domestic water transportation industry, and uses the data change trends before and after the epidemic to discuss and study the epidemic The impact of the water transport industry, combined with an analogy analysis of the PHEIC situation announced by WHO in previous times, has a high reference value for analyzing the impact of the epidemic on the water transport industry and how to take response measures in China.

Compared with other articles, the innovation of this article is that this article not only analyzes the impact of the new crown epidemic on the domestic water transportation industry, but also analyzes and studies how the domestic water transportation industry takes advantage of the epidemic window to seize the opportunity to enhance its own competitiveness and actively occupy new markets. During the epidemic period, the passive was turned into active, and the negative impact of the epidemic situation on the domestic water transportation industry was improved.

Keywords: Corona Virus Disease 2019（COVID-19）、epidemic、impact on waterborne commerce , impact on economic

目录

第1章 绪论 1

1.1 研究目的与意义 1

1.2 国内外研究现状 1

1.2.1 新型冠状病毒肺炎研究 1

1.2.2 水运业受疫情影响的研究 2

1.3 本文研究采用的技术方案及措施 2

1.3.1理论分析和统计分析相结合 2

1.3.2相似案例类比分析 3

第2章 新冠状病毒疫情国内外发展现状和趋势分析 4

2.1新型冠状病毒疫情国内外概况 4

2.1.1国内疫情概况 4

2.1.2全球疫情概况 4

2.2国内外疫情在短期内的趋势分析 4

2.2.1数理统计处理方法与数据来源 4

2.2.2基于SPSS分析国内短期范围内疫情趋势 5

2.2.3基于SPSS分析国外短期范围内疫情趋势 6

2.3关于短期内国内外疫情可能出现的发展状况讨论 8

2.3.1国内疫情方面 9

2.3.1国外疫情方面 9

第3章 新冠疫情对国内水运业的影响 10

3.1国内水运业概况 10

3.2疫情对国内水运业的直接影响 10

3.2.1疫情对国内水运业的正常运行造成影响 10

3.2.2从货物运输来看疫情使国内水运业的货物运输量大幅下降 11

3.2.3从客运量来看国内水上客运业遭受巨大冲击 12

3.2.4从历次全球疫情类比分析新冠疫情对国内水运业的影响 12

3.3疫情对国内水运业的间接影响 13

3.3.1疫情使国内外经济衰退 13

3.3.2贸易货物运输的需求大幅下降 13

第4章 新冠疫情给国内水运业带来的机遇 15

4.1新冠疫情促进水运业数字化与智能化转型 15

4.1.1水运数字化、智能化在疫情中得到检验和进一步推广 15

4.1.2疫情将促进水运业的高度数字化转型 15

4.2疫情为国内水运企业迎来战略发展新时期 15

4.2.1内贸供需逐步恢复，全球供应链对中国依赖性增强，国内水运业迎来战略发展期 16

4.2.2国内水运业如何抓住疫情战略窗口期 16

第5章 国内水运业的应对措施 17

5.1政府层面 17

5.1.1增强疫情防控措施，尽早全面推进复工复产 17

5.1.2完善疫情应对机制，对全球性蔓延做好应对措施 17

5.1.3制定针对国内水运业的利好政策 17

5.2企业层面 18

5.2.1提升船舶疫情防控措施，确保正常运营 18

5.2.2加速企业数字化智能化转型升级 18

5.2.3灵活调整运营航线，降低运力闲置率 18

第6章 结论 19

参考文献 20

致 谢 21

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