论文总字数：23152字

摘 要

本文的研究对象是京津冀地区大气当中的可吸入颗粒物，对其在浓度方面发生的变化进行研究和探讨，主要是从时间、气象及人文三个不同的角度来对该地区的大气中可吸入颗粒物浓度的变化趋势进行分析。以期通过本文的研究，能够为该地区治理大气中可吸入颗粒物浓度的相关工作提供一定的理论基础。本文的研究时间段为2010年到2019年，主要研究京津冀地区大气当中的可吸入颗粒物在2019年各个不同季节浓度方面发生的变化。

论文取得的主要认识如下：

（1）从研究的结果可以明显看出，该地区PM₁₀浓度随年限发生的小幅增长，从月均、季均的颗粒物浓度分析中可知，京津冀地区颗粒污染物浓度最高的月份是一月、二月、十二月即冬季，为116.33 μg/m³；颗粒污染物浓度最低的月份为六月、七月、八月即夏季，为34.33 μg/m³；三月、四月、五月即春季的颗粒污染物浓度略高于九月、十月、十一月即秋季。

（2）通过分析京津冀地区空间分布特征，北部大气中颗粒污染物的浓度最低，京津冀河北省张家口市的浓度最低，为60.5 μg/m³；南部颗粒污染物的浓度最高，河北省邯郸市浓度为121.25 μg/m^3。颗粒污染物浓度呈现出北部低，南部高的变化趋势。

（3）气象因素与污染物浓度关联度和显著性水平分析结果表明，京津冀北京、天津、河北三个地区与颗粒污染物关联度最高的为温度，并且呈现负相关关系，其中河北省的相关性最高，PM_2.5和PM₁₀分别为-0.798和-0.765。而湿度、风速与颗粒污染物的关联度较小。

（4）从社会因素与颗粒污染物关联度分析得，能源消耗与烟尘排放总量对空气质量影响最大，北京市和天津市能源消耗在颗粒污染物关联度占据重大比例，关联度系数分别为0.647和0.5543。河北省与颗粒污染物关联度最强的是烟尘排放总量，关联度为0.4888。因此在治理颗粒污染必须在这两个方面制定治理方案。

关键词：京津冀 可吸入颗粒物 时空特征 变化趋势 自然因素 社会因素；

Analysis on the characteristics and influencing factors of air particle pollution in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei

Abstract

As to this thesis, it takes the inhalable particles in the atmosphere in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as research objects, has research and discussion on the changes in the concentration, and has analysis on the variation tendency of concentration of inhalable particles in the atmosphere in this area mainly from time, meteorology, and humanity, which hopes to provide some theoretical basis for the related work to govern the concentration of inhalable particles there. The time quantum of this research is from 2010 to 2019, which mainly has research on the changes of the concentration of inhalable particles in the atmosphere in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in different seasons in 2019.

It gets the main conclusions:

First of all, the result of research shows that the concentration of PM₁₀ there has small growth with time going, which can be shown in the analysis on the monthly and quarterly analysis on the concentration of particles, while in January, February, and December these three months in winter it has the highest concentration of inhalable particles in the atmosphere in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, which is 116.33 μg/m³; in June, July, and August these three months in summer, it has the lowest concentration of inhalable particles there, which is 34.33 μg/m³; and the concentration of inhalable particles in March, April, and May these three months in spring is slightly higher than it in September, October, and November these three months in autumn.

Secondly, by means of analysis on the spatial distribution characteristics in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, it can find that the inhalable particles in the atmosphere in north has the lowest concentration, while in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Zhangjiakou in Hebei province has the lowest concentration, which is 60.5 μg/m³; the inhalable particles in the atmosphere in south has the highest concentration, and the concentration in Handan in Hebei province is 121.25 μg/m³. The concentration of particles presents the change tendency of higher distribution in south than in north.

Thirdly, the meteorological factor and analysis on the relevancy and significance level of particle concentration show that temperature has the highest relation with the particles in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and among them, it has the highest relation in Hebei province, where the PM_2.5 and PM10 are -0.798 and -0.765 respectively, while humidity and wind speed have comparatively small relation with particle.

Fourthly, from the analysis on the relation of social factors with particle, it can get the conclusion that energy consumption and total amount of smoke discharge have the largest influence on air quality, while the energy consumption in Beijing and Tianjin accounts for a large percentage in the relation with particle, and the relation coefficients are 0.647 and 0.5543 respectively. In Hebei province, the total amount of smoke discharge has the highest relation with the particle, which is 0.4999. Therefore, it is necessary to make governance plan from these two aspects when governing particle pollution.

Key words: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region; inhalable particle; temporal and spatial characteristics; variation trend; natural factor; social factor

目 录

摘要 I

Abstract II

第一章 引言 1

1.1研究背景与研究意义 1

1.2国内外研究的现状 1

1.2.1对大气颗粒物的研究 1

1.2.2大气颗粒物时空分布特征 2

1.2.3 气象因素对大气颗粒物的影响 3

1.2.4大气污染防治现状 3

1.2.3技术路线 5

第二章 数据来源 6

2.1研究区域概况 6

2.1.1气候条件 6

2.2数据来源 6

2.3研究方法 6

2.3.1时空分布特征的研究方法 6

2.3.2影响因素的研究方法 7

第三章 京津冀区域空气污染特征 9

3.1京津冀地区可吸入颗粒物（PM₁₀）时空分布特征 9

3.1.1京津冀地区PM₁₀年均变化趋势 9

3.2月均和季均浓度变化趋势分析 11

3.2.1月均浓度分析 11

3.2.2季均浓度分析 12

3.3颗粒污染物的空间分布特征 13

3.4本章小结 15

第四章 影响因素分析 16

4.1京津冀地区自然因素对可吸入颗粒物（PM₁₀）的影响 16

4.2京津冀地区人文因素对可吸入颗粒物（PM₁₀）的影响 19

4.2.1 京津冀区域人文因素变化趋势图分析 19

4.2.2 基于灰色关联模型的社会发展因素的影响 21

第五章 结论与建议 23

参考文献 25

致谢 27

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