论文总字数：15735字

摘 要

由于分布式电源的灵活性和环境等优势，分布式电源在电力系统中的使用率逐年增加。然而，由于分布式电源的输出频率十分随机导致分布式电源对电力系统可靠性评估有着无法忽视的影响。

本文将分布式电源出力的不稳定性考虑在内，对分布式电源进行了仿真模拟。在分布式电源的两大种类：间歇性分布式电源和非间歇性分布式电源中，选择间歇性分布式电源进行仿真模拟，并选取了最为代表性的风力发电机进行研究。将风力发电机接入电力系统，对其可靠性进行评估。在建立风力发电机的基础上，将风力的间歇性，随机性等特点考虑进去，根据风力统计数据预测出风速。与此同时，画出单台风力发电机的发出功率特性曲线，再得到风力发电机组在考虑尾流、考虑尾流及地形和两者均不考虑的三种情况下的可靠性指标的曲线图。本文研究了序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法在计算含分布式电源的电力系统可靠性的应用，以IEEE-RBTS系统为例进行了仿真模拟。

算例计算结果表明：风电机组接入系统之后，系统的可靠性水平得到了提高。并且随着风电机组数的增加，可靠性水平也有相应的提升。

关键词：分布式电源；电力系统；可靠性评估； 序贯蒙特卡洛仿真

Abstract

Due to the flexibility and environmental advantages of distributed power generation, the utilization rate of distributed power generation in power system increases year by year. However, because the output frequency of distributed power generation is very random, distributed power generation has a significant impact on the reliability evaluation of power system.

In this paper, the output instability of distributed power generation is taken into consideration, and the simulation of distributed power generation is carried out. In the two kinds of distributed power generation: intermittent distributed power generation and non-intermittent distributed power generation, the intermittent distributed power generation is selected for simulation, and the most representative wind turbine is selected for research. The reliability of wind turbines is evaluated by connecting them to the power system. On the basis of establishing the wind turbine, the intermittent and random characteristics of the wind are taken into account, and the wind speed is predicted according to the statistical data of the wind. At the same time, the output power characteristic curve of a single wind turbine is drawn, and then the reliability index curves of the wind turbine are obtained under the three conditions of considering wake flow, considering wake flow and terrain, and neither of them is considered. In this paper, the application of sequential Monte Carlo simulation method in computing the reliability of power system with distributed power supply is studied.

The calculation results show that the reliability of the system is improved after the wind turbine is connected to the system. And with the increase of the number of wind turbines, the reliability level also has a corresponding improvement.

Keywords: distributed generator; power system; reliability evaluation; sequential Monte Carlo simulation

目录

摘要…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….III

Abstract………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………IV

第一章 绪论 1

1.1选题背景及意义 1

1.2电力系统可靠性评估方法 1

1.3分布式电源的建模 1

1.4含分布式电源的电力系统可靠性评估方法 2

第二章 含分布式电源的电力系统可靠性评估基础 3

2.1 可靠性的基本概念 3

2.2 可靠性指标 3

2.3 可靠性评估方法 4

2.3.1 可靠性短期评估 4

2.3.2 与条件有关的运行可靠性评估 4

2.4 分布式电源 4

2.4.1 分布式电源的分类 4

2.4.2 分布式电源的特点 5

第三章 基于序贯蒙特卡洛的含分布式电源的系统可靠性评估 6

3.1对风速预测 6

3.2利用序贯蒙特卡洛模拟发电功率 8

3.3 三种情况下的LOLP以及EENS曲线图 9

3.4本章小结 12

第四章 结论与展望 13

4.1 总结 13

4.2 展望 13

致 谢……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..14

参考文献……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………15

绪论

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