摘 要

近些年来我国社会主义市场经济的发展十分迅速，互联网技术在传统金融业的的使用和发展越来越广泛，以P2P网贷平台为代表的互联网金融发展十分迅速。P2P这种新的模式在给消费者带来便捷金融服务的同时，也包含着巨大的风险，因而对P2P平台的信用风险识别与防范的研究就有重大的意义。以P2P网贷平台为例，在审计方面“免疫系统”的体系下，搭建 P2P 网贷平台信用风险评估的指标体系，并综合运用了熵权法以及灰色关联集成评价法对我国10个龙头P2P平台收集数据并进行实证研究，进一步提出互联网金融风险预警的防范治理方案。

本文研究发现：(1)目前我国P2P发展面临着瓶颈，作为一种特殊的融资方式，有助于解决中小企业的融资问题，但是信用风险的存在给P2P行业的发展带来和巨大的影响，因而信用风险的防范和监察具有重要意义；(2)信用风险的评价需要从多个角度进行考察，不同角度所占的权重也有所不同，在综合骆驼评级法和科技信用风险指标后，能更加全面的对信用风险进行评价；(3) 根据实证分析可以发现，对于近年来迅猛发展且信用风险较大的 P2P 网贷平台，采用熵权法与灰色关联分析相结合的客观分析方法，可以对平台的信用风险提供预警，关联度小于0.5的P2P网贷平台是信用风险监管的重点；(4) 在互联网金融信用风险监管的实践中，只有不断的加强审计监督，提高其信用风险预警水平，行业风险才能及时的呈现给投资者，行业才能更加规范的发展,而投资者的风险识别才有意义，投资者的利益才能得到保障，最终推动 P2P 网贷平台的信用风险管理进程，让其实现跨越式发展和进步。

本文特色：在传统的骆驼评级指标体系的基础上，又加入了科技信用风险评价指标使评价指标更加完善，在免疫系统理论的基础上，通过综合运用熵权和灰色关联分析两种实用成熟的方法，构建互联网金融信用风险评价模型，用来减少决策或评价的主观随意性，让评价的结果变得更加准确和客观。

关键词：P2P；信用风险；骆驼评级法；熵权法；灰色关联分析

Abstract

With the rapid development of China’s socialist market economy and the widespread application of Internet technology in traditional financial services, Internet finance represented by P2P online loan platforms has been rapidly developed. P2P also brings convenient financial services to consumers while also hiding Focusing on large risks, it is of great significance to study the identification and warning of its credit risk. Taking the P2P online lending platform for example, on the basis of framework of the “immune system”, an evaluation index system for the credit risk of P2P online lending platforms was constructed, and a comprehensive application of 10 P2P online loans using the entropy method and grey relational integrated evaluation model was implemented. Platform samples for research, and then put forward an audit governance strategy for Internet financial risk prevention.

We have three findings in this paper: (1) At present, China's P2P development is facing a bottleneck. As a specific financial approach, it has the influence to solve the financial problem of SMEs, but the existence of credit risk has brought a huge impact on the development of P2P industry, and thus credit risk prevention and monitoring are of great significance; (2) Credit risk evaluation needs to be examined from multiple perspectives, and the weights of different perspectives are also different. After integrating the camel rating method and the scientific and technological credit risk indicators, it can be more comprehensive. Risk evaluation; (3) According to empirical analysis, it can be found that for the P2P online loan platform with rapid development and high credit risk in recent years, an objective analysis method combining entropy method and grey correlation analysis can be applied to the credit risk of the platform. Providing early warning, the P2P online loan platform with a relevance degree of less than 0.5 is the focus of credit risk supervision; (4) In the practice of Internet financial credit risk supervision, only by continuously strengthening audit supervision and improving its credit risk early warning level, can industry risks be timely Presented to investors, the industry can be more standardized development, and investors’ risk identification Justice, the investors‘ interests can be guaranteed, and ultimately promote the credit risk management process P2P net loan platform, allowed to achieve leapfrog development.

This article features: On the basis of the traditional camel rating index system, a science and technology credit risk indicator system was embedded to construct a P2P online credit platform credit risk evaluation index system. Based on the auditing immune system theory, two objective evaluations were integrated using entropy weight and grey correlation analysis. Methods: An integrated evaluation model for internet financial credit risk was constructed to reduce the subjective arbitrariness of decision-making or evaluation and make the evaluation result more objective.

Keywords:P2P; credit risk; camel rating; Entropy method; Grey Relational Analysis

目 录

摘 要 I

Abstract II

第1章 绪论 1

1.1 研究背景目的及意义 1

1.1.1 研究背景 1

1.1.2 研究目的及意义 2

1.2 国内外研究现状分析 3

1.2.1网络借贷信用风险的研究 3

1.2.2网络借贷信用风险管理的研究 3

1.2.3研究现状评价 4

1.3 研究内容框架和研究方法 4

1.3.1 研究内容框架 4

1.3.2 研究方法 4

1.4 创新点 5

第2章 P2P网络借贷信用风险 6

2.1 P2P网络借贷信用风险内涵 6

2.2 P2P网络借贷信用违约风险形成原因 6

2.2.1借款人的违约行为 6

2.2.2 投资者与借款者交易信息不对称 7

2.2.3 P2P网贷个人正信体系不健全 7

2.2.4 P2P平台信用管理水平有限 7

2.3 P2P网贷信用风险的主要特征 7

2.4 用于信用风险防范的免疫系统 9

第3章 P2P网贷信用风险评价模型的构建 11