摘 要

随着我国城市化进程的加快，工业及交通所产生的大量废气使得城市空气质量不断恶 化，大气污染不断加重，严重影响了人们正常的生产与生活，引起了人们的广泛关注，关 于大气污染的研究与治理迫在眉睫。

本论文以新一线城市杭州为研究对象，在收集 2000-2017 年杭州市环境空气质量数据、 杭州市统计年鉴中的地区生产总值、能源消耗等数据以及气象数据的基础上，通过对已有 数据进行处理归纳后，采用 Daniel 趋势检验法分析了杭州市主要大气污染物的长期变化趋 势，结果表明 2000-2017 年间 PM10,SO2,NO2 三种主要污染物年均浓度均呈显著下降趋势。 随后对三种主要污染物和收集到的相关人为影响因素建立岭回归模型并进行分析，结果表 明，污染物浓度和能源消耗量，机动车保有量以及相关污染物排放量呈显著正相关，和累 计环保投入呈负相关。本文还通过对 2014-2017 年间的杭州市的大气污染物月均、季均浓 度指标和气象数据进行 Person 相关性分析研究，分析结果表明，大气中 PM2.5、PM10、SO2、 NO2 和 CO 六项污染物浓度指标，与气象因素中的风速、相对湿度和温度 呈现的是一种负 相关关系 O3 的月均和季均浓度指标与温度则呈现的正相关关系，而与其他气象因素呈现的 是负相关关系。最后，本文根据建立的大气污染物影响因素岭回归模型的分析结果对杭州 市大气污染物治理提出了建议。

关键词：大气污染物 Daniel 趋势检验 岭回归分析 person 相关性

Analysis on the Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Atmospheric Environmental Quality in Hangzhou

Abstract

With the acceleration of urbanization in our country, a large number of exhaust gases from industry and transportation make the urban air quality deteriorating and air pollution aggravating, seriously affecting people's normal production and life, which has aroused widespread concern. The research and treatment of air pollution is imminent.

In this paper, Hangzhou, a new frontline city, is taken as the research object. On the basis of collecting the air quality data of Hangzhou from 2000 to 2017, the regional gross domestic product, energy consumption and meteorological data in Hangzhou Statistical Yearbook, the long-term change trend of main air pollutants in Hangzhou is analyzed by Daniel trend test after processing and summarizing the existing data. The results showed that the annual average concentrations of PM10, SO2 and NO2 all showed a significant downward trend from 2000 to 2017. Then a ridge regression model was established and analyzed for the three main pollutants and the related anthropogenic factors collected. The results showed that the pollutant concentration and energy consumption, vehicle ownership and related pollutant emissions were significantly positively correlated, and negatively correlated with the cumulative environmental input. Person correlation analysis of monthly and seasonal mean air pollutant concentration indices and meteorological data in Hangzhou City from 2014 to 2017 shows that there is a negative correlation between the six pollutant concentration indices of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2 and CO in the atmosphere and the wind speed, relative humidity and temperature in meteorological factors. There is a positive correlation with temperature, but a negative correlation with other meteorological factors. Finally, according to the analysis results of the ridge regression model of influencing factors of air pollutants, this paper puts forward some suggestions for the treatment of air pollutants in Hangzhou.

报错

Keywords: atmospheric pollutant；Daniel Trend Test；Ridge regression analysis；Person relevance

目录

摘要 I

Abstract II

第一章 绪论 1

1.1 研究背景与意义 1

1.2 国内外研究进展 2

1.3 研究内容和技术路线 3

1.3.1 研究内容 4

1.3.2 技术路线 4

第二章 杭州市大气环境质量数据 5

2.1 数据来源及数据处理 5

2.1.1 数据来源 5

2.1.2 数据处理 5

2.2 研究方法 5

2.2.1 岭回归模型法 5

2.2.2 Daniel 趋势检验法 6

第三章 杭州市大气污染浓度分析 7

3.1 杭州主要大气污染物年均浓度变化分析 7

3.1.2 杭州市大气污染影响因素分析 8

3.2 杭州市大气污染物季节性变化分析 12

3.2.1 杭州市大气污染物季节变化特征 12

3.3 杭州市大气污染物月变化特征以及影响因素分析 15

3.3.1 杭州市大气污染物月变化特征 15

3.2.2 杭州市大气污染物月均浓度变化特征与气象因素分析 16

3.3 杭州市大气污染物日均浓度变化特征 17

第四章 总结与建议 23

4.1 主要结论 23

4.2 建议 23

参考文献 25

附录 27

附录 A 27