Problems and Prospects of Trade-Economic Relations Development between Russia and China开题报告
2020-05-02 17:58:28
1. 研究目的与意义(文献综述包含参考文献)
文 献 综 述 1.Introduction 1.1 Research background The history of Russian-Chinese trade and economic relations begins in the first decade of the XVII century and covers about four centuries. Although the current structure of economic trade is extremely different from the business of those years, and yet, the basic qualities such as equality, mutual respect and loyalty still play a significant role in the long-term cooperation perspective. The most important component of bilateral relations is trade and economic cooperation between Russia and China. The problems and prospects of political development and interaction between the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China are most relevant due to the coincidence of national interests. Russia and China understand that it is necessary to demonstrate to the entire world community the nature of modern and centuries-long cooperative relations, precluding military or another significant clash of national interests. Russian-Chinese relations are undoubtedly characterized by high dynamics of development, a strong legal base, an extensive organizational structure, active ties at all levels and have a high value for both parties. Over the past few years, an unprecedented activity has been observed in bilateral dialogue in various areas of economic and political relations. Besides, Russia and China are closely involved in the process of globalization, especially in the field of trade, which is largely due to their geographical proximity. China is the best partner for Russia, primarily due to the complementarity of the economies of both countries. Russia is rich in energy resources, heavy industry, knowledge-intensive industries and mining, China has a highly developed light industry, a high level of technology development, the presence of a large potential of labor, a significant amount of foreign exchange reserves. In the modern world, globalization has already become the main trend in the development of the world economy, the lifting of trade restrictions, ensuring the free movement of capital and increasing international cooperation more than ever meet the requirements of the era and the aspirations of the population. However, lately, unilateralism and anti-globalism are gaining momentum. Trade protectionism, the imposition of sanctions, customs barriers, trade wars #8212; all of this puts the world economy at risk, which at present has a direct bearing on these two countries. The contrast of this situation is the trade and economic cooperation between China and Russia, which continues to grow rapidly and steadily. As important economies of the world, China and Russia at various world sites are closely coordinating the development of the regional economy, defending the economic order based on the rules and principles of the WTO, ready to play and play important roles in the "game" of the open world economy. Undoubtedly, trade and economic cooperation between Russia and China is positive for the development of both countries, however, some of the advantages of this cooperation are not fully utilized. Thereby, this thesis is aimed at addressing the main problems and prospects for the development of bilateral relations between Russia and China in the trade sphere, as well as reasonable proposals for further alternatives to these countries in the context of the latest events of 2018 on the world stage. Based on the material presented, an analysis will be made of the problems and prospects of Russian-Chinese trade relations in the 21st century. Also, forecasts and expert information will be included. On this issue will be offered the most profitable future development of trade relations between the Russian Federation and China. 1.2 The objective of the study. The object of the research is the trade and economic relations of the Russian Federation and China, foreign economic policy and foreign economic activity of the countries under consideration with their partners in the main integration groups and alliances in which they participate, and the current stage of strategic partnership between both countries. 2 Literature Review 2.1 Overview of trade-economic relation 2.1.1 Trade-economic relation In the development of human society, trade and economic relations have played a decisive role, due to which intercommunal, inter-polity and interstate relations have become stronger. These relationships have become one of the main factors in the development of all areas of human activity. Trade and economic relations are one of the most dynamically developing spheres of economic activity. In the course of evolution, foreign economic relations developed into foreign trade, and turned into a systemic set of international trade and economic relations; at the present time - the world economy. The processes taking place in it affect the interests of all states of the world, including the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China. (Golovnin M.Y,2014,p.93) The main factor for a successful trade and economic relationship is a strategic partnership. The strategic partnership is a new form of interstate political relations, caused by the need to move from simple coordination of current policies to the definition of promising and long-term areas of cooperation. Partnership facilitates the solution of economic problems of cooperation because it based on the principles of voluntariness, mutual benefit, joint responsibility and consensus in decision-making. International trade-economic relations have gone a long evolutionary path from random individual trade deals to large-scale trade and economic cooperation in the framework of industrial cooperation, which is the result of the activities of modern transnational corporations and globalization. 2.1.2 Globalization Traditional forms of business and entrepreneurial activity are increasingly being influenced by new trends in the global economy, one of which is globalization. Due to the huge spread of political bias in modern world science and politics does not exist a single universally accepted definition of globalization. Globalization is considered from different points of view (”Security of Eurasia”2003, p. 126): this is a process that integrates the world economic system in interaction with the natural-biological environment and giving new integrity (”Security of Eurasia”2003); this is the output of the process (phenomenon) to the universal level; it is a process of reproductive transformation of national economies and economic structures, securities, capital, etc., in which the world economy is considered as an integral population (Castells M., 2004). In addition, globalization is understood as the process of increasing influence on the social reality of individual countries of various factors of international importance: economic and political ties, cultural and information exchange, etc .; the trend towards a global investment environment and the integration of national capital markets; the highest stage of integration; ”Interaction and interpenetration of political, economic and cultural spheres of public life of various states and societies, i.e. association in the broad sense at the level of social institutions (groups) having different historical and cultural grounds” (Ponomareva E.S., 2000, p. 3); the process of forming a single economic space, gradually covering all spheres of human activity. This is a complex phenomenon of the modern world, giving a lot of material for reflection in various aspects: philosophical, political, economic, legal (Ponomareva E.S., 2000, p. 18). Summing up these definitions, we can conclude that all points of view are unanimous in the understanding that globalization is the process of formation and subsequent development of a single global financial and economic space based on new technologies. 2.1.3 Foreign trade In modern conditions, foreign trade is an important component of the functioning and development of each individual country and the world as a whole, since no state can develop without building an effective system of economic ties with the economies of other countries in the context of globalization processes. In the context of international economic relations, national economies are not viewed as separate economic systems, but as a systemic set of interrelations of business entities on the world market, therefore, the role of foreign trade in the development of the national economy of the country increases significantly. More recently the growth in trade has accelerated largely from the developing countries due to globalization and openness. Globally oriented economies tend to grow faster than in-ward looking economies. This has been the general philosophy behind trade liberalization and globalization. This view is further supported by many studies over the past three decades, which show that open economies grew much faster than those with high protection levels. The study by Sachs and Waner (1995) show some economies that employed aggressive import substitution policies either suffered economic crisis or collapsed during the eighties and nineties. Other studies, which includes Edwards (1998), Coe and A. Hoffmaister (1997), also suggests, that trade liberalization has a positive impact on the long-run rate of growth of a country. In addition, studies by Grossman and Helpman (1991) have also shown that small and developing counties that are open to free trade to grow more rapidly by absorbing technologies from developed counties than economies which are less open. A more recent study by Hartono, et al (2007) shows that the Indonesian economy gains a significant benefit in terms of real GDP, output and welfare through its various bilateral, regional and multilateral FTAs. There are also negative cases on the impact of foreign trade on the country's economy. A study by Kumar and Prasad (2002 argue that trade of liberalization in Fiji has a negative effect on economic growth and national welfare. Based on the above, it can be concluded with certainty that in most cases open foreign trade policies contribute to the replenishment of capital and boost the country's economy, and based on current events, it can also be said that Russia and China have chosen the right path for the development of trade and economic relations, stabilizing these economies two countries. 2.1.4 Investment An integral part of trade-economic relations is an investment. The development literature has long been concerned with investment, because of its importance for the rate of growth of per capita output in the economy (Dornbusch and Reynoso, 1989,p.204). Most of these are related to the problem of uncertainty and/or risk, which acts as a disincentive to private investment, because of the irreversible nature of most investment expenditures. Some researchers support the notion that foreign investment contributes to the productivity and growth of local enterprises. Blomstrom and Sjoholm( 1998) are of the opinion that the productivity and growth of local enterprises could be achieved through spillover effects/externalities from FDI. Research shows that foreign investment affects the economy of a host country in a variety of ways. Firstly, it provides the required capital and state of the art technology that enhances economic growth in the host country (Blomstrom and Sjoholm, 1998; Akinkugbe, 2005). Secondly, it augments the skills of the host nations and thus stimulates growth through the infusion of managerial, labor skills and training. Thirdly it promotes the technological upgrading, regarding start-up, marketing, and licensing arrangements. Foreign investment is thus seen as a catalyst to the host nation's economic growth and development as it enhances the technological process and promotes industrial development (Asheghian, 2004). The major determinant#8217;s of the host country#8217;s economic development and growth is the economic environment portrayed by its rate of economic growth, trade policy, political stability, legislation, domestic market size and balance of payments constraints the political economy of the nation. These factors may inevitably influence the decision of foreign investors on the possible choice of a viable investment location (Akinkugbe, 2005). Like any country, China and Russia are trying to get the maximum benefit from the growth of foreign investment and their own investments in each other. So, entrepreneurs see direct benefits in investing in the economy, since the closest neighbor offers unique opportunities for the development of regions, and maintaining honest relations is proclaimed the basis of a good and fair partnership of countries (Wang Zhou, 2018). Most often, investments do not come from private investors, but as a result of agreements between the two countries at the government level. (Mr.Zhen, 2017,p.60) Vice-President of the Russian-Asian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs Timur Andreev connects this, including with the tightening of US sanctions: Western European partners have limited ability to supply equipment to Russia. In this regard, the Chinese partners have additional opportunities to enter the Russian market.”Russia and China ”fully realize their potential at the economic and political level,” said Li Chaohui, first secretary of the Chinese Embassy in Russia, at a conference on the development of Russian-Chinese trade and economic relations, stressing that relations between countries are experiencing the best period of their development (14). 2.2 History of trade and economic relations between Russia and China Undoubtedly, the historical past influences the specifics of relations between the two countries, and in order to fully understand the development of trade and economic relations between Russia and China, it is necessary to build a ladder of historical events that will help to figure out how quickly bilateral relations develop, how often problems are solved and whether they have improved. the economy of two countries. The history of economic relations between Russia and China is divided into two phases, which are distinguished by the dynamics, scale, content of economic exchanges and operations, as well as the driving forces of their development. The first stage can be determined by the period from 1992, that is, from the beginning of direct trade and economic relations between Russia and China and until the end of the last century. The second phase began with the new millennium and continues today. (Ionichev N.P., 2001, p.399) The starting point of the formation and development of modern Russian-Chinese relations was the collapse of the USSR and the subsequent positioning of the Russian Federation as an independent state. The main content of the first stage was determined by two multidirectional trends. On the one hand, in the 1990s, the political process of forming "Russian-Chinese relations of an equal, trusting partnership aimed at strategic interaction in the 21st century" was actively pursued, which created a favorable background for establishing trade and economic ties. On the other hand, the consequences of a severe crisis that the Russian economy was experiencing after the collapse of the USSR and the start of market reforms were manifested. The influence of the second tendency was decisive, which caused the stagnation of trade and economic exchanges, abrupt changes in their dynamics, the spread of such a phenomenon as "shuttle" trade. In the literal and figurative sense, in those years, "eating up" the reserves remaining from the USSR went on. Against this background, the value of Russia in China's foreign trade was declining. For the period 1993-2000. its share in foreign trade relations with the PRC decreased from 3.9 to 1.7%. According to Maslennikov S.(2018) The reasons for the significant growth were the following factors: First, the political and administrative factor. The establishment of strategic partnerships, the signing of various kinds of agreements on trade and economic cooperation. Secondly, the economic strategy of the PRC. Since the beginning of the XXI century. The country's leadership is implementing the concept of a global external economic offensive "to go outside", the key elements of which are product expansion in foreign markets, etc. Thirdly, the growing demand of China for a number of Russian exports is due to the rapid growth of the Chinese economy. Fourth, the improvement of the economic situation in Russia, the increase in the purchasing power of Russians led to an increase in demand for Chinese goods. (Maslennikov.S , 2018, p.32). Also, Nezhdanov V.,(2018) argues that a high jump in the period from 2016 to 2018 was because of the growing conflict between Russia and the United States, the criticism of the dollar and the overall increase in Russian-Chinese trade with settlements in yuan. Nowadays, life itself and historical events of a world scale are beneficial for uniting the efforts of the two powers for further development and prosperity. For great states, relative openness to the outside world is characteristic, only in China the international relations are regulated by the state, and in Russia, the degree of openness is limited to Western sanctions since 2014. Despite the large historical period of the lack of common interests of the state, Russia and China are of great mutual importance in shaping the system of national priorities (Pecherkina O., 2018.p. 142). Every year a lot of research is carried out in the field of Russian-Chinese trade relations, but only a small amount has an integrated approach to this topic. Therefore, based on previous studies, this article reveals questions that are acute in connection with recent events on the world stage, and will also assess the impact of external and internal factors on the whole on the state of relations between the two states. References Golovnin M.Y, (2014): Publishing House of the Institute of Economics of the RAS. The influence of the economic dynamics of the countries - Russia's neighbors on the Russian economy. (2003). Globalization: essence, problems, prospects: materials of the round table with the support of the journal ”Security of Eurasia”. M.: Book and business, Castells M., (2004). Galaxy Internet: Reflections on the Internet, business and society. Ponomareva E.S., (2000). The World Economy and International Economic Relations. Wang Zhou (2018). China's foreign investment. Place of Russia. Collection of articles on the results of the International Scientific and Practical Conference. P.108-113 Mr.Zhen, (2017). Prospects for China's investment in the Russian oil and gas industry. In the collection: the scientific community of students. Jeffrey D. Sachs and Andrew M. Warner, (1995). Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth. Rudiger Dornbusch, Alejandro Reynoso, (1998). Financial Factors in Economic Development. Blomstrom, Magnus Sjoholm, Fredrik, (1999). "Technology transfer and spillovers: Does it matter with multinationals matter? Oluyele Akinkugbe, (2005) 'A Two-Part Epoch', International Journal of World Trade, Issue 5, pp. 907#8211;923. Asheghian, P., (2004). Determinants of economic growth in the United States. The role of foreign direct investment. The international trade journal, Edwards, S. (1998). ”Openness, productivity and growth, Economic Journal, 108, pp.383-398. Coe and A. Hoffmaister, (1997), ”North-South R D Spillovers,” Economic Journal, 107 (January), pp. 134#8211;149. Gene M. Grossman and Elhanan Helpman, (1991). Quality Ladders in the Theory of Growth, pp. 43-61 Maslennikov.S , (2018). Problems and perspectives of Russian Chinese trade-economy relations, p 32 Pecherkina O., (2018). The development of economic relations between Russia and China: a historical aspect; International Journal of Science. p.140 Ionichev N.P., (2001). Foreign Economic Relations of Russia: study guide for universities: Aspect-Press. Nezhdanov V.,(2018).Russian and Chinese trade beats records.: article for Eurasia magazine expert.
2. 研究的基本内容、问题解决措施及方案
Research methods There are various methods and approaches used in the research methodology, but the main link is that the methodology of a particular research is more dependent on the field of research. This study is a contrast to the different points of view of the authors, which reveals new ideas in this field. The main criteria on which the author relied in the research methodology of this work are the research area, research structure, sampling methods, data sources, data collection tools, data analysis, reliability of the sources used. The reliability and accuracy of any study depends mainly on the desirability of data collection tools. The procedure that the authors use to collect data is key in writing the work, since it depends on the accuracy of the results, the reliability of the work and an objective conclusion. Therefore, when conducting this study, the researcher considered it appropriate to use the following data collection tool: Reading / Documentation: The researcher, while working on this study, thoroughly familiarized himself with relevant documents from various libraries, including the electronic library, as part of his secondary sources for reviewing his literature. Among them were scientific articles, official sources of countries that are the subject of research work (Russian Federation and People's Republic of China) and other internal reports. Contrast / deduction: In analyzing the data, the researcher used the contrast of works that were written by other authors in this field in order to avoid a misunderstanding of the topic being studied. Also, through the use of deductive thinking, the author found a connection between the available information, giving the work meaning, clarity and completeness, which makes the work understandable for any reader. Also, in the course of the study, key ethical issues were taken into account in order to avoid a negative impact on the audience, while not taking anyone's side of the objects under study.