摘 要

相比于主板市场，新三板市场交易不活跃、资金流动性差、估值定价较为混乱，市场监管力度不够,对于投资者来说风险很高。本文在总结对比分析传统估值模型的基础上，结合新三板企业的高风险性、高收益性、分阶段融资特征，对不同估值模型进行了适用性分析，总结得出净现值法、相对估值法等传统估值法的局限性，同时肯定了实物期权在新三板企业估值方面的优越性。但由于单一阶段的实物期权并未充分考虑投资的分阶段性，无法灵活地对各个投资阶段的价值进行分析，因此本文引入了衡量投资项目期权价值的多阶段复合实物期权估值模型。

结合新三板企业分阶段定向增资的特性，本文阐明了复合实物期权方法在新三板企业估值多阶段投资决策中的适用性，重点剖析应用复合实物期权方法对新三板企业的估值思路及计算方法。为了验证模型的合理性与实用性，以新三板企业同辉佳视信息技术股份有限公司(北京)为例，应用多阶段复合实物期权价值评估模型加以验证，结果表明该模型在新三板企业估值上具有可行性。

本文通过多阶段复合实物期权模型对新三板企业进行估值分析，充分考虑了新三板企业阶段性定向募资的特性，反映了投资风险和经营管理柔性的期权价值，在一定程度解决了传统估值方法无法准确评价新三板企业价值的问题,对价值评估体系做了有效地补充，同时科学合理的价值评估模型可以促进投资者运用复合实物期权的思维，灵活地进行分阶段投资决策。

关键词：新三板企业；企业价值评估；复合实物期权

Abstract

Compared to the main board market, the new three board market is not active with poor capital liquidity, valuations chaos, and inadequate effort in market regulation, all of which are full of high risk for investors. Based on the summary analysis on the basis of the traditional valuation models, combined with the new three board enterprise characteristics of high risk, high profitability and phases financing , it analyzes the applicability of different valuation model, concluding that compared to the superiority of real options ,the traditional valuation method, such as the net present value method, the relative valuation method has the limitation in terms of the new three board enterprise valuation .But a single stage of the real option don’t fully take enterprise management flexibility and investment stage into consideration , without keeping flexibility to analyze the value in all stages of the investment. So this paper introduces a multistage compound real option valuation model that measures the value of the investment project options.

Combination with the characteristics of new three board enterprise in the process of directional capital increase in stages, this article illustrates the applicability of the compound real option approach in the new three board enterprise valuation of the multistage investment decision,. It will analyze valuation idea and calculation method of compound real options method .In order to validate the rationality of the model and practical, this paper takes an new three board enterprise as an example. Applying multistage composite real option value evaluation model to validate it, the results show that the model is feasible in the valuation of new three board enterprises.

In this paper, though the application of the compound real options method in the new three board value analysis, full consideration has been taken to the features of the new three board enterprise in the process of directional capital increase in stages ,which reflects the option value of investment risks and flexible management. to a certain extent the model solves the problem that traditional valuation methods can not accurately evaluate new three board enterprise value. Besides it is a complementary addition to value assessment system, at the same time, scientific and reasonable value evaluation model can promote the investors by using compound real options thinking, flexibly making phased investment decisions.

Keywords: the new three board business；valuation methods；compound real option

目 录

摘 要---------------------------------------------------------------------Ⅰ

Abstract------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Ⅱ 第1章 绪论--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1

1.1研究背景---------------------------------------------------------------1

1.2选题意义---------------------------------------------------------------1

1.3国内外研究综述---------------------------------------------------------2

1.3.1 国外研究综述-------------------------------------------------------2

1.3.2 国内研究综述-------------------------------------------------------3

1.4研究内容及方法---------------------------------------------------------4

1.4.1 研究内容-----------------------------------------------------------4

1.4.2 研究方法-----------------------------------------------------------5

1.4.3 技术路线-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------5

第2章 新三板企业特征及估值模型适用性分析----------------------------------6

2.1 新三板的发展历程及现状-------------------------------------------------------------------------6

2.2 新三板企业特征-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------6

2.3 企业估值理论----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------7

2.3.1 现金流量折现估值法--------------------------------------------------------------------------8

2.3.2 相对估值法--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------8

2.3.2 实物期权理论-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------8

2.4估值方法的适用性分析-----------------------------------------------------------------------------9

2.4.1 现金流折现法的适用性分析-----------------------------------------------------------------9

2.4.2 相对价值法的适用性分析--------------------------------------------------------------------9

2.4.3 单一阶段实物期权的适用性分析----------------------------------------------------------10

第3章 基于复合实物期权的估值模型构建----------------------------------------------------------11

3.1 复合实物期权适用性分析------------------------------------------------11