摘 要

房地产行业是随着市场经济的发展而兴起的一个新型行业，凝结了市场经济的种种矛盾。同时，房地产行业是一个包容性非常广泛的行业，在社会经济的发展中产生了重要的推动作用。但是，房地产企业处于市场经济的浪潮中，也容易受到各种因素的影响，形成各种财务风险，2008年的金融危机就是最好的例证。因此，了解房地产企业财务风险的表现形式和诱发原因，对其规避方法进行探讨，保证房地产企业的财务安全，维护房地产企业的可持续发展具有重要的意义。本文把房地产行业财务风险分析的理论研究同江苏常州房地产行业发展的市场实践相结合，预测、识别、分析、处理江苏常州房地产行业中可能发生的风险，例如对江苏房地产行业内的市场风险、金融风险、政策风险等进行系统的归纳与总结，对风险的预测、风险识别、风险防范、风险管理和风险决策进行可行性研究，进而对防范江苏常州房地产行业风险提出有价值且可行的对策和建议，为江苏常州房地产企业立足市场，面对市场竞争，提供分析理论依据和实践指导，促进江苏常州房地产行业稳定的、健康的、可持续的发展。

本文首先依据房地产行业财务风险管理理论，为房地产行业的财务风险下了定义，总结了房地产行业财务风险的一些特征，并介绍了两种定量识别和预测房地产行业财务风险的方法，且介绍了几种防范房地产行业财务风险的对策。接着结合相关数据对江苏常州房地产行业的概况作了大致的介绍，结合常州房地产行业的政策法规、税收政策来对江苏常州房地产行业的各种财务风险进行分析，进而为江苏常州房地产行业财务风险管理提出相应的防范对策。

江苏常州房地产行业财务风险会受到江苏常州房地产市场、常州市关于房地产行业的政策法规、金融机构利率、以及常州投资者的心态和企业自身财务管理机制的影响，为了预测和防范房地产行业的财务风险，本文提出了几点建议：首先常州市政府的相关政策应充分考虑当前常州房地产行业房屋销售价格偏低库存较高的现状，从而调整相应的土地政策以及税收政策；常州房地产企业自身应建立健全财务风险预警和防范机制，使企业自身财务风险发生概率和频率降低。但本文对于房地产行业财务风险的分析只是从金融、政府政策、企业自身等方面来进行分析，并未涵盖所有的方面的全面分析。

关键词： 江苏常州；房地产行业；财务风险；风险防范

Abstract

The real estate industry is a new industry rising with the development of market economy, setting the contradictions of the market economy. Meanwhile, the real estate industry is a industry including very wide range of industries inclusive, and has an important role in promoting social and economic development in. However, the real estate enterprises in the wave of market economy, is also influenced by a variety of factors, many financial risks would occur, the 2008 financial crisis is the best example. Thus, the clear manifestation of the real estate business and financial risk-induced causes of them and discussion of how to avoid risks is of great significance to ensure the financial security of the real estate business and to maintain the sustainable development of real estate enterprises. In this paper, the theory of the real estate industry financial risk analysis is combined with market practice with Jiangsu Changzhou real estate industry, in order to predict, identify, analyze, process risks the Changzhou real estate industry may occur. For example, making conclusion of market risk, financial risk, policy risk in Changzhou real estate industry, and making discussion on risk prediction, risk identification, risk prevention, and risk management, and thus provide valuable suggestion on prevention of Changzhou real estate industry financial risk, in order to provide theoretical basis and guidance facing market competition for Changzhou real estate industry, and then promote the Changzhou real estate industry to developing healthily.

In this paper, firstly, the financial risks are defined, and the financial risk characteristics are summarized according to the real estate industry financial risk management theory, and two pieces of quantitative methods to predict the real estate industry financial risk are presented, and several prevention methods are introduced. Secondly, make general introduction of Changzhou real estate industry combined with the relevant data. Then make analysis of Changzhou estate industry financial risks combined with Changzhou’s policies and regulations and the tax policies. And then provide prevention measure for risk management of Changzhou real estate industry.

Changzhou real estate financial risk will be influenced by policies and regulations, interest rates of financial institutions, investor’s mentality of Changzhou and their own financial management mechanism. In order to predict and prevent Changzhou real estate financial risk, this paper offer some suggestions: first, the Changzhou government policies should take full account of the situation of real estate industry in Changzhou ,which housing sales prices is low current inventory is high, to adjust the appropriate land policy and tax policy; Changzhou real estate enterprises themselves should be established the probability of financial risk early-warning and prevention mechanism, so that their own financial risk, and the frequency is lowered. But this article for the analysis of the real estate industry’s financial risk is only from the financial, government policy, and other aspects of their own to analyze, does not cover all aspects of a comprehensive analysis.

Key words: Changzhou, Jiangsu; Real estate industry; Financial risk; Risk prevention

目录

摘 要 I

Abstract II

第1章 绪论 1

1.1.研究目的与意义 1

1.2国内外研究现状 2

1.3研究内容与方法 5

第2章 房地产行业财务风险管理理论 6

2.1 房地产行业财务风险的定义与分类 6

2.2 房地产行业财务风险的特征 7

2.3 房地产行业财务风险的预测与识别 8

2.4 房地产行业财务风险处理 9

第3章 江苏常州房地产行业财务风险分析 10

3.1 江苏常州房地产行业概况 10

3.2 市场风险 13

3.3 融资风险 14

3.4 政策风险 14

第4章 江苏常州房地产行业财务风险控制策略 16

4.1 常州市政府政策宏观调控 16

4.2 常州房地产企业自身 16

4.3 常州地区投资者 17

4.4 常州地区金融机构 17

第5章 总结与展望 18

5.1 研究总结 18

5.2 不足与展望 18

参考文献 20

致谢 21

第1章 绪论

1.1.研究目的与意义

1.1.1.研究目的

把房地产行业财务风险分析的理论研究同江苏常州房地产行业发展的市场实践相结合，预测、识别、分析、处理江苏常州房地产行业中可能发生的风险，例如对江苏房地产行业内的市场风险、金融风险、政策风险等进行系统的归纳与总结，对风险预测、风险识别、风险防范、风险处理和风险决策进行可行性研究^[10]，进而对防范江苏常州房地产行业风险提出有价值的对策和建议，为江苏常州房地产行业的健康可持续发展，提供财务风险分析的理论依据和实践指导，促进江苏常州房地产企业的稳健发展。

1.1.2.研究意义