摘 要

房地产行业对我国经济发展有着不可替代的作用，但该行业在我国市场里处于成长阶段，大部分企业发展不成熟，在股权结构和经营模式上都存在缺陷，所以需要可靠的企业价值评估来为投资者和管理者提供有效的信息，优化房地产市场的结构，保证其平稳发展。关于企业价值评估，现在常用的有三种方法：成本法、市场法和收益法，对这几种方法的适用性一直以来都存在争议，对价值评估过程中的参数选择等问题亦没有统一的标准，顾评估结果的可靠性也一直受到质疑。

鉴于此，本文以收益法的自由现金流量贴现模型为中心，总结国内外关于企业价值评估的研究现状，梳理常用理论和方法。本文的研究主要包括以下几个方面：（1）总结了企业价值评估及自由现金流量的概念，比较和分析了各种企业价值评估方法的优缺点及适用性，并针对房地产企业的特点指出自由现金流贴现模型更为合适。（2）详细阐述了使用自由现金流量模型进行价值评估的步骤及如何确定各个参数，并选取A房地产上市公司为例，分析其财务报表，进行财务指标预测，合理确定参数，构建出自由现金流折现模型。（3）最后进行案例分析，运用自由现金流模型对A企业进行价值评估，然后与企业的账面价值进行对比，得出结论，进行分析并针对价值评估的结果为投资者和企业管理层提出建议。

本文通过对案例企业数据的分析和计算，得出了一个略大于企业账面价值但与其接近的内在价值，验证了自由现金流贴现法的对上市企业的价值评估的合理性、实用性和科学有效性，并认为随着基于自由现金流贴现法的企业价值评估日渐完善，它一定会成为一种推动企业发展的新兴管理工具。最后本文提出了几点对评估过程中由于自由现金流贴现模型本身的局限性而遇到的问题和值得注意的地方，即影响参数选择的主观因素、财务报表数据对结果的影响和对无形资产的考虑，总结了影响企业价值评估结果的各种客观因素，并提出相关的建议。

关键词：价值评估；自由现金流量；A企业；房地产上市公司

Abstract

Real estate industry plays an irreplaceable role in China’s economic development, but this industry is in the growth phase in the China market and most businesses which have flaws in the ownership structures and business models are not well-developed in this industry. So those real estate enterprises need more accurate business valuation to provide beneficial information for investors and managers as well as optimizing the structure of real estate market for its steady development. Now there are three popular methods about business valuation, the cost method, the market approach and the income approach. The cost method focuses on the historical static data whereas the market approach and the income approach focus on the future profitability of the company. The applicability of these methods are often controversial. And because our domestic study of the theory of enterprise's value assessment is based on the basis of previous research in foreign countries and there was no unified standard towards something such as parameters selection in the valuation process, the reliability of the valuation results has been the subject of controversy.

In view of this, focusing on the free cash flow discounting model of the income approach, this article summarizes the research status of enterprise value assessment and sorts the commonly used theory and methods at home and abroad. This paper includes the following aspects: a. This article summarizes the concepts of business valuation and free cash flow. This article also compares and analyzes advantages, disadvantages and applications of various methods of enterprise value assessment, and at the same time pointed out that the free cash flow discounting model is more appropriate regarding to the characteristics of the real estate business. b. This paper describes in detail the procedure of using free cash flow model to value a business and how to determine the model parameters to build a complete free cash flow discounting model. Then we select a listed real estate company called A Company and determine the parameters reasonably by analyzing its financial statements and making forecast of financial indexes to build the free cash flow discounting model. c. Finally we use the free cash flow model to value A Company as the case study and compare the result with the book value of A Company on the balance sheet to draw a conclusion, analyze the evaluation results and raise recommendations for investors and management.

Based on the case analysis and calculation of enterprise data, this article drew an intrinsic value which is slightly larger than but close to the book value of the businesses, verifying the rationality, practicality and scientific validity of free discounted cash flow method of valuation of listed enterprises. This paper also believes that it will be a new management tool for promoting enterprise development with the enterprise value evaluation based on the free cash flow discounting method has become better. Finally the paper presents the problems encountered and notable places in the assessment process because of the limitation of free cash flow discounting model, which are the subjective factors of parameter selection, the influence of financial statement data on the results and considerations of intangible assets. The paper also summarizes the various objective factors affecting business valuation results and make relevant recommendations.

Key Words: business valuation; free cash flow; A Business; Real Estate Listed Companies

目录

摘要 Ⅰ

Abstract Ⅱ

第1章 绪论 1

1.1 研究目的及意义 1

1.1.1研究目的 1

1.1.2研究意义 1

1.2 国内外研究现状 2

1.2.1 国外研究现状 2

1.2.2 国内研究现状 3

1.3 研究内容与方法 4

1.3.1 研究内容 4

1.3.2 研究方法 5

第2章 基于自由现金流的企业价值评估基本理论 6

2.1 企业价值的概念 6

2.2 自由现金流的概念 7

2.2.1企业自由现金流量（FCFF） 7

2.2.2股权自由现金流量（FCFE） 8

2.3 企业价值评估的理论方法 8

2.3.1成本法 8

2.3.2相对价值法 9

2.3.3自由现金流贴现法 11

2.3.4 EVA（经济增加值法） 13

2.3.5房地产企业价值评估方法的选择 13

第3章 基于自由现金流量的企业价值评估模型的构建 15

3.1 案例企业概况 15

3.2预测期的确定 16

3.2.1预测期与稳定永续期的划分 16

3.2 2 A企业历史财务指标分析 16

3.2.3 A企业预测期的划分 17

3.3自由现金流量的预测 17

3.3.1 A企业财务指标的预测 18

3.3.2 A企业自由现金流的预测 20

3.4折现率的确定 22

3.4.1债权资本成本的估计 22

3.4.2股权资本成本的估计 23

3.4.3加权平均资本成本的估算 23

第4章 A企业价值评估结果与讨论 24

4.1 企业价值评估结果 24

4.2 讨论及分析 24

第5章 研究结论与展望 26

5.1 研究结论 26

5.2 研究展望 26

参考文献 27

致谢 28

第1章 绪论

1.1 研究目的及意义

1.1.1研究目的

近年来我国经济飞速发展，市场经济体制不断深化改革，企业的体制和经营情况也在不断发生变化，原有的企业经营模式受到了新经济发展的挑战。同时资本市场不断壮大，成为了企业另一个重要的竞争战略，在这个市场中，投资者做出选择的关注点就是企业是否具有投资价值。

当然，随着资本市场的发展，企业之间的产权交易如并购、重组及融资等现象越来越多。虽然企业的价值是以收益为基础，但企业价值最大化和利润最大化是有区别的，在20世纪50年代后期，莫迪格里亚尼和米勒指出企业价值最大化应成为企业财务的中心，因为我国股票市场产生的较晚，市场制度不健全，投机现象严重，股票价格不一定准确地反应出公司的潜在价值，从市场股票价格体现出来的企业价值的低估或高估都会导致恶意收购从而损坏公司合法的控制权。