论文总字数：24554字

摘 要

随着全球化程度的不断加深，各国之间的经济互动也日益增加。作为世界第二大经济体，中国积极与世界各国各地区开展经贸金融交流合作。自2013年“一带一路”倡议被习近平主席提出以来，我们就更加重视与沿线国家和地区的经贸金融交流，加深与“一带一路”沿线国家的国际合作，共创美好未来。截止到2020年12月，我国已向“一带一路”沿线国家建设的境外经贸合作区已累计投资340亿美元，向东道国缴纳税费超过30亿美元，为当地创造了33万个就业岗位。然而，除了巨大的经济效益，投资风险也是我们投资“一带一路”沿线国家需要解决的重大课题。

为了防范这一重大风险，我们要首先对可能遇到的风险进行预测评估。然而，由于“一带一路”沿线国家数量由几十个，政治制度、法律制度、文化各不相同，导致在对沿线国家的投资过程中，也存在着各种不同的风险。

研究方法：为了贴合主题，本文从国家的角度评估了对外直接投资“一带一路”的风险。运用PEST模型划分风险评级体系，结合前人数据对各个国家的风险水平进行等级划分。研究发现：影响“一带一路”沿线各国之间风险的因素存在巨大的差异，每个国家的风险水平也是不一样的。研究价值：对“一带一路”沿线各国的风险水平做出了评估，进行了风险水平的划分，为我们投资过程中应如何做才能减少风险提供了方法。

中国目前对外直接投资风险水平普遍偏低，需要构建一个系统的，有效的风险防范体系，为“一带一路”背景下的对外投资提供有效保护。

关键词:“一带一路”；对外投资；风险识别；风险测度；风险防范

Country risk measurement and prevention strategy of China"s foreign investment under "One Belt And One Road"
Abstract

不加页眉

With the development of economic globalization, international investment is playing an increasingly important role in international exchanges, and transnational investment needs special attention.As the world"s second largest economy, China is not only a popular investment destination, but also a big net exporter of investment.Since President Xi Jinping put forward the "One Belt And One Road" initiative in 2013, China has paid more attention to trade and financial exchanges with countries and regions along the Belt and Road One Belt And One Roadepened the "BBB1" international cooperation, and jointly built a community with a shared future for mankind.By December 2020, China has signed 200 cooperation documents with 138 countries and 30 international organizations to jointly build the "One Belt And One Road", and the connectivity framework of "six corridors, six roads, many countries and many ports" has basically taken shape.Chinese enterprises have invested 34 billion US dollars in overseas economic and trade cooperation zones in countries along the Belt and Road, paid more than 3 billion US dollars in taxes and fees to host countries, and created 330,000 local jobs.However, investment in "One Belt And One Road" countries not only brings huge economic benefits, but also faces serious political risks and investment legal risks.

In order to prevent the risks of OFDI in the construction of "One Belt And One Road", we should first clearly identify the possible risks.The risk of foreign investment refers to the uncertainty that may adversely affect the realization of the enterprise"s goal when the enterprise makes foreign direct investment.Due to the complexity and particularity of the investment environment, legal environment and political environment of the "One Belt And One Road" countries, the principles of feasibility, cost-benefit, flexibility and comprehensiveness should be followed in the process of investment in the countries along the "BBB0".

Research Methods: In order to further manage and control risks, OFDI risks in "One Belt and One Road" need to be evaluated from the perspective of enterprises.Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (F-AHP) is used to determine the risk weight, and the risk degree of the enterprise is obtained by combining with the "maximum membership degree" method.It is found that the risk levels of countries along the "One Belt And One Road" are significantly different among countries, within regions and between regions.The overall level of investment risk in countries along the Belt and Road shows a downward trend, but the decreasing range of investment risk in different regions and dimensions is different.The differentiation degree of investment risk among countries along the Belt and Road shows a certain trend of narrowing.Research Value: The investment risks of countries along the "One Belt And One Road" are effectively measured, which provides scientific decision-making basis for enterprises to avoid investment risks.

At present, the risk management level of China"s OFDI is generally low, so it is necessary to build a systematic risk prevention system that can improve the efficiency of enterprise risk management, so as to provide effective guarantee for enterprises" foreign investment under the background of "One Belt And One Road".

Key words: "One Belt And One Road"; Foreign direct investment; Risk identification; Risk measurement; Risk prevention

目 录

“一带一路”下我国对外投资的国别风险测度与防范策略摘要 II

Country risk measurement and prevention strategy of China"s foreign investment under "One Belt And One Road" Abstract III

第一章 绪 论 1

1.1 研究背景 1

1.2 研究目的及意义 1

1.3 研究内容及方法 2

1.4 论文框架 2

第二章 “一带一路”对外投资风险文献综述及概念界定 4

2.1 文献综述 4

2.1.1评述背景 4

2.1.2“一带一路”下对外投资的后果 4

2.1.3 影响我国对外投资的风险因素 4

2.1.4针对风险提出的防范策略 4

2.1.5文献评述 5

2.2 风险界定 5

2.2.1对外投资的风险含义 5

2.2.2对外投资的一般特征 5

第三章 “一带一路”建设中的对外投资 7

3.1 “一带一路”倡议的提出与建设进展 7

3.2 “一带一路”建设中的对外投资现状分析 7

3.2.1 投资规模不断扩大但逐步趋缓 7

3.2.2 分布广泛但主要集中在亚洲国家 7

3.3 “一带一路”建设中对外投资的动因 7

3.4“一带一路”对外投资的制约因素 8

第四章 “一带一路”建设中对外投资风险评估：东道国视角 9

4.1 “一带一路”沿线中国对外投资的理论基础 9

4.2 风险研究的测度机制 9

4.2.1 “一带一路”沿线国家投资风险测度体系的构建 9

4.2.2 风险评估的数据处理方法 10

第五章 “一带一路”建设中对外投资风险防范策略 17

5.1 建立法律保障制度 17

5.2 建立法律保障制度 17

5.3 完善信息服务平台 17

5.4 加强金融领域支持 17

5.5 鼓励自主创新研发 17

结 论 18

致 谢 20

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