摘 要

经济环境和产业调整对供应链发展提出新的变革要求，使得节点企业间的业务联结和财务关系随规模发展要求加深而日益密切。在供应链视角下，各节点企业的财务风险不仅由本身产生，亦由渠道合作者传播得到。由于风险源的不确定性和传导过程的多样性，这种财务风险传导具有复杂性和动态性，社交现象尤为突出。

本文在梳理分析供应链财务风险及其传导机理、路径的基础上，判断复杂网络建模的适用性。后引入小世界网络，对供应链视角下财务风险传导特性进行分析，并运用MATLAB模拟随传导结构变动财务风险传导的情况。根据主要特征量分析，通过调整供应链规模和最短距离合作的扩展概率以控制较小的特征路径长度、较大的集聚系数和交流频率，进而增大财务风险传导的效率和范围，降低信息时滞。本文还以汽车制造业为例，对部分上市公司运用Z-score进行风险阀值判断，并分析其财务风险传导网络。最后，结合企业的地位差异与财务风险生命周期的不同阶段提出对应的财务风险管控建议。

基于小世界网络对供应链财务风险传导进行研究，对现有供应链财务风险的分析方法进行了拓展，揭示并归纳了该种风险传导结构和演化过程的部分特性和规律，有助于建立节点企业防范和控制财务风险的合理策略。

关键词： 财务风险传导；供应链；小世界网络

Abstract

The economic environmental and industrial adjustment put forward new requirements for the development of the supply chain, which makes the relationship between the finance and the interests of the node enterprises deepen with the development of the scale. In the perspective of supply chain, the financial risk of each node enterprise is not only produced by itself, but also communicated by channel partners. Because of the uncertainty of the risk source and the diversity of the conduction process, the risk conduction is complex and dynamic, and the social phenomenon is particularly prominent.

In this paper, we judge the applicability of the complex network modeling based on the the analysis of supply chain financial risk and its conduction route and mechanism. After introducing small world network, this paper analyzes the conduction characteristics of financial risk from the perspective of supply chain and uses MATLAB to simulate conditions of financial risk transmission under different transmission structure. According to the analysis of the main features, we can control the small characteristic path length, high clustering coefficient and AC frequency through adjusting the expansion probability, the supply chain scale and the cooperation of shortest distance, thereby increasing the efficiency of the financial risk conduction and reducing the risk of delay. In this paper, the automobile manufacturing industry is taken as an example. The paper also uses Z-score to estimate the risk threshold of some listed companies in this industry and analyzes the transmission network of financial risk. Finally, the corresponding suggestions are put forward according to different status of the enterprise and different stages of the financial risk life cycle.

Study on supply chain financial risk conduction based on the small world network expands the existing analysis methods of supply chain financial risks. It reveals and summarizes sorts of the characteristics and laws of the risk conduction structure and process. At last, reasonable strategies provided can help prevent and control the financial risk of node enterprise.

Key words: Financial risk conduction； Supply chain； Small-world network

目 录

第1章 绪论 1

1.1 选题背景 1

1.2 研究意义 1

1.3 文献综述 2

1.4 研究方法与思路 4

第2章 供应链财务风险相关理论 6

2.1 供应链财务风险的含义 6

2.2 供应链财务风险的相关理论 7

第3章 复杂网络理论的基础知识 10

3.1 网络理论与复杂网络的兴起 10

3.2 小世界网络模型的特性 10

第4章 基于小世界网络的供应链财务风险传导分析 15

4.1 供应链财务风险传导的研究内容 15

4.2 供应链财务风险传导网络与小世界网络 18

4.3 小世界网络模型的构建 21

4.4 数值模拟结果及分析 23

第5章 供应链财务风险传导网络的一个实例分析——汽车制造业 29

5.1 汽车制造业简介 29

5.2 以B汽车制造商为核心的供应链风险传导网络分析 30

5.3 对供应链财务风险管理的启示 35

第6章 结论与展望 37

6.1 结论 37

6.2 不足与展望 37

参考文献 39

致谢...............................................................................................................................41

附录...............................................................................................................................42

第1章 绪论

1.1 选题背景

经济全球化是市场发展与企业成长的必然趋势，同时，它反作用于企业生存环境与发展模式，使得企业身处的外部环境急剧变化。其具体体现为：用户的多样化需求促使产品生命周期缩短和品种多样性要求迅增，同时对企业订单的响应速度提出更高诉求。在这种情况下，伴随多种战略革新，供应链之间和其内部各节点间的关联关系发生深刻变革。供应链是指产品从生产者到达消费者所经历的一系列活动及设施。其涵盖渠道合作者和内容之间的流转，渠道合作者包括供应商、制造商、分销商、零售商、服务机构等，内容流转通过物流、信息流、资金流等。节点企业通过各种关系连接渠道合作者，其中，财务关系的影响尤为突出。基于规模经济发展的需要，供应链节点企业间的融资和利益关系将会日益密切，其与机构组织的经济关系也将日趋紧密。从而，供应链各节点处的财务风险不仅由节点本身产生，亦可由上下游传播得到。该种现象存在普遍性和动态性。