论文总字数：29424字

摘 要

近年来，随着国内资本市场并购交易业务不断发展，一方面，由于业务景气度的升高，高溢价并购随之产生；另一方面，因并购而产生的商誉也在激增。仅从2014年12月至2015年12月，A股交易总额增加近三千亿，商誉总额增加近两千亿，增速之快不言而喻。并购交易对于社会的好处显而易见，不仅有利于提高市场资源利用效率，加速资源整合，而且有助于企业之间更好地发挥协调效应。但“膨胀”式规模下，高溢价并购所产生的商誉也成为了企业未来发展的风险。

本文选取主板上市公司作为研究对象，选取了2013-2015年间，产生包含业绩承诺（对赌协议）的并购交易业务的上市公司作为样本，结合并购溢价率指标，筛选出具有高溢价并购业务的上市公司，运用STATA15.0软件，实证分析了业绩承诺下的高溢价并购商誉：（1）对企业当期及滞后四期盈利能力的影响；（2）对当期及滞后四期企业价值的影响。

研究结果表明，对于主板上市公司，高溢价并购商誉未必给企业带来良好经济状态。业绩承诺下的主板上市公司的高溢价并购商誉：（1）对当期及滞后期的企业盈利能力有持续负面影响；（2）高溢价并购商誉对企业价值当期的影响表现为正相关，但在滞后期内正向作用不再显著。即高溢价并购商誉仅对当期企业价值具有正面促进作用，但并不能使企业价值持续提升。通过（1）与（2）研究结论可以发现，随着盈利能力的减弱，虽然高溢价并购交易对短期企业价值的提振具有促进作用，但长期看来，并不能使得企业获得持续高收益。

最后，依据实证得出的相关结论，做出如下建议：（1）规范业绩承诺相关制度；（2）采用恰当的资产评估方法；（3）强化对投资者的教育；（4）健全信息披露制度；（5）完善市场监督体制。同时，本文也对后续研究作出了展望。

关键词：业绩承诺；高溢价并购商誉；企业盈利能力；企业价值

The Research on High-premium Consolidated Goodwill under Performance Commitments to the Impact of Company's Profitability and Corporation value
──Under the Main Enterprise Market

Abstract

In recent years, with the continuous development of Mamp;A transactions in the domestic capital market, on the one hand, due to the rising business climate, high-premium mergers and acquisitions have occurred; on the other hand, the goodwill generated by mergers and acquisitions has also increased sharply. From December 2014 to December 2015 alone, the total amount of A-share transactions increased by nearly 300 billion, and the total goodwill increased by nearly 200 billion. The rapid growth rate is self-evident. The benefits of Mamp;A transactions to the society are obvious. They are not only conducive to improving the efficiency of market resource utilization and accelerating the integration of resources, but also helping companies to better exert their coordination effects. However, under the "inflated" scale, the goodwill generated by high-premium mergers and acquisitions has also become a risk for the future development of enterprises.

This article selects the main board listed companies as the research object and selects the listed companies that produced Mamp;A transactions that include performance commitments (between gambling agreements) during 2013-2015 as samples and combines the Mamp;A premium rate indicators to screen out high-premium Mamp;A businesses. The company, using STATA15.0 software, empirically analyzed the high-premium Mamp;A goodwill under performance commitments: (1) the impact on the company's current and four-phase profitability; (2) the impact on the current and four-phase corporate value.

The results of the study show that, for companies listed on the Main Board, high-premium Mamp;A goodwill does not necessarily bring good economic conditions to the company. The high-premium Mamp;A goodwill of the main board listed companies under the performance commitment: (1) It has a continuous negative impact on the profitability of the current and lagging period; (2) The current impact of the high-premium Mamp;A goodwill on the corporate value is positively correlated. However, the positive effect is no longer significant during the lag period. That is, the high-premium Mamp;A goodwill only has a positive effect on the current corporate value, but it cannot make the corporate value continue to increase. According to the research conclusions (1) and (2), it can be found that with the weakening of profitability, although high-premium Mamp;A transactions can promote short-term corporate value, in the long run, they cannot make companies obtain sustained high returns.

Finally, based on relevant conclusions drawn from empirical studies, the following recommendations are made: (1) Standardize performance commitment related systems; (2) Adopt appropriate asset evaluation methods; (3) Strengthen investor education; (4) Improve information disclosure System; (5) Improve the market supervision system. At the same time, this article also looks forward to the follow-up research.

Key words: Performance Commitments; High-premium Consolidated Goodwill; Profitability; Corporation value

目 录

摘 要 I

Abstract II

第一章 绪 论 1

1.1 研究背景 1

1.2 研究意义 1

1.3 研究方法 1

1.4 全文框架 2

1.5 可能的创新点 3

第二章 理论与文献综述 4

2.1业绩承诺 4

2.1.1 业绩承诺 4

2.1.2 业绩承诺的经济影响 4

2.2 商誉的内涵 5

2.3 商誉与盈利能力、企业价值的关系 5

2.4 理论基础 5

2.4.1 信息不对称理论 5

2.4.2 协同效应理论 6

2.4.3 信息信号理论 6

2.5 研究述评 7

第三章 高溢价并购商誉、盈利能力及企业价值关系的理论分析 8

3.1 主板并购商誉现状 8

3.2 主板并购动因 8

3.2.1 促进产业整合，实现规模效应 8

3.2.2 获取市场融资，合理维护资源 9

3.2.3 粉饰财务报表，营造虚假利润 9

3.3 高溢价并购商誉的界定 9

3.4 理论分析与研究假设 9

3.4.1 高溢价并购商誉对盈利能力的影响 9

3.4.2 高溢价并购商誉对企业价值的影响 10

3.4.3 理论模型与研究假设 11

第四章 研究设计 12

4.1 样本选择 12

4.2 变量设置 12

4.3 模型构建 13

第五章 实证研究结果 14

5.1 描述性统计分析 14

5.2 相关性分析 14

5.3 回归分析 15

5.4 稳健性检验 16

第六章 结论与后续研究的方向 19

6.1 研究结论 19

6.2 相关建议 19

6.3 研究局限 20

6.4 后续研究的展望 20

参考文献 22

致 谢 24

第一章 绪 论

1.1 研究背景

并购重组作为现代商业社会快速整合上下游供应链，横向扩大市场份额，促进规模效应以及实现多元化扩张的重要途径，近年来愈发受到国内资本市场的追捧。2014年10月，证监会发布《上市公司重大资产管理办法》，11月又出台了《上市公司收购管理办法》的决定及相关政策。政策的引导及推动，自然也加速了这一市场行为在国内的火热发酵。

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