论文总字数：21803字

摘 要

2021年我们国家的经济体制进一步完善并且产业链也在不断的优化升级，房地产行业对于国民的经济贡献占比不断增长。因而房地产行业已经是我国经济快速发展的重要的组成部分。但是，随着行业的发展我们国家政府对于房地产行业的政策调控也在进一步加强，民众的购房需求有增无减，行业内部竞争也越来越激烈，随着土地价格的进一步上升，房地产行业所面临的挑战也进一步上升，2021年由于疫情的影响，中国房地产开发投资增速明显降低，进入了一次负增长衰退期。房地产行业如何在日益变化的市场环境中能够发展下去，需要提高对行业内部和市场环境以及公司本身的警觉，要有着风险意识。因为房地产行业属于资金密集型行业，资金大量投入必将带来财务风险，财务风险是该行业所要面对的主要风险之一。由于财务风险存在于企业经营的所有环节之中，每个房地产公司的未来取决于如何有效地识别和评估房地产公司的财务风险，并采取适当的控制措施来降低风险，促进业务的发展。

我准备以万科股份有限公司为例，来分析房地产行业的财务风险，然后从投资，筹资，经营三个方面对财务风险进行识别，并针对这些财务风险建立相应的预警机制。研究目的是为了让房地产行业在识别出财务风险后，对如何建立一个有效的财务风险预警机制提供建议。研究方法使用文献综述法和案例分析法：首先对如何识别财务风险进行了研究，并通过对国内国外研究成果的归纳得出目前对财务风险的研究主要侧重于财务风险相关理论、财务风险的评价方法以及对财务风险预警机制理论方面的研究，目前来看我们还没有形成完整的有体系的财务管理体系。这些文献主要解释了财务风险的相关概念和特点，同时也介绍了识别企业财务风险的方法即财务指标法，然后就这如何建立一个有效的财务预警机制进行研究。总结出相关理论要点后，通过万科集团的具体案例来分析房地产行业的财务风险并研究建立财务风险预警机制。

最后通过几种方法相比较，最后选择财务指标分析方法。选取关键的指标对该企业的主要财务风险因素进行分析，我们发现万科集团确实存在投资风险，筹资风险，营运资金风险等财务风险。根据万科股份有限公司的2015-2019相关财务报表数据对其财务风险进行评价。通过比较发现万科财务公司偿债能力方面较差以及现金流动，营运资金方面的一些不足，出现了盈利能力下将等方面的问题。所以提出了建立有关风险预警机制的研究来应对其可能面临的财务风险，从而降低风险，促进企业稳定持续发展。

关键词：房地产行业；财务风险；预警机制；万科企业股份有限公司

Research on Identification and Early Warning Mechanism of Enterprise Financial Risks
: A Case Study of China Vanke Enterprise Co., Ltd.

Abstract

In 2021, our country"s economic system will keep further improving and the industrial chain will continue to be optimized and upgraded. The real estate industry"s contribution to the national economy will continue to increase. Therefore, the real estate industry has become an important part of my country"s rapid economic development. However, with the development of the industry, our national government’s policy regulation on the real estate industry has been further strengthened. The people’s housing demand has increased unabated, and competition within the industry has become increasingly fierce. With the further increase in land prices, the real estate industry and the challenges faced have also risen further. In 2021, due to the impact of the epidemic, the growth rate of investment in China"s real estate development has dropped significantly, entering a period of negative growth and recession. How the real estate industry can develop in the ever-changing market environment requires greater awareness of the industry"s internal and market environment, as well as the company itself, and a sense of risk. Because the real estate industry is a capital-intensive industry, a large amount of capital investment will inevitably bring financial risks, and financial risk is one of the main risks faced by the industry. Since financial risks exist in all aspects of business operations, the future of each real estate company depends on how to effectively identify and evaluate the financial risks of the real estate company and take appropriate control measures to reduce risks and promote business development.

I am going to use Vanke Co., Ltd. as an example to analyze the financial risks of the real estate industry, and then identify financial risks from the three aspects of investment, financing, and operation, and establish a corresponding early warning mechanism for these financial risks. The purpose of the research is to enable the real estate industry to provide suggestions on how to establish an effective financial risk early warning mechanism after identifying financial risks. The research method uses the literature review method and case analysis method: first, the research on how to identify financial risks is carried out, and through the summary of domestic and foreign research results, the current research on financial risks mainly focuses on financial risk related theories and financial risk evaluation Methods and research on the theory of financial risk early warning mechanism, at present, we have not yet formed a complete and systematic financial management system. These documents mainly explain the related concepts and characteristics of financial risks. At the same time, they also introduce the method of identifying corporate financial risks, namely, the financial indicator method, and then conduct research on how to establish an effective financial early warning mechanism. After summarizing the relevant theoretical points, analyze the financial risks of the real estate industry through specific cases of Vanke Group and study the establishment of a financial risk early warning mechanism.

Finally, compare several methods, and finally choose the financial indicator analysis method. Selecting key indicators to analyze the company"s main financial risk factors, we found that Vanke Group does have financial risks such as investment risks, financing risks, and working capital risks. Based on the 2015-2019 relevant financial statement data of China Vanke Co., Ltd., evaluate its financial risks. Through comparison, it is found that China Vanke Finance Company"s debt solvency is poor, cash flow, some deficiencies in working capital, and problems such as lower profitability have appeared. Therefore, a research on the establishment of a risk early warning mechanism is proposed to deal with the financial risks that it may face, thereby reducing the risk and promoting the stable and sustainable development of the enterprise.

Keywords: Real estate industry; Financial risk; Early warning mechanism; Vanke Enterprise Co., Ltd.

目 录

摘 要 I

Abstract II

第一章 绪 论 1

1.1 研究背景和意义 1

1.1.1 研究背景 1

1.1.2 研究意义 2

1.2 研究目的和内容 2

1.2.1 研究目的 2

1.2.2 研究内容 2

1.3 研究方法 3

1.4 研究思路 4

1.5 主要概念界定 5

1.5.1 财务风险的概述和特点 5

1.5.2 预警机制的概念 5

第二章 文献综述 6

2.1 识别财务风险研究综述 6

2.2 研究建立预警机制 7

第三章 万科企业财务风险识别的选择 8

3.1 财务风险识别方法 8

3.2 财务风险识别方法的选择 8

第四章 以万科企业股份有限公司财务风险识别 10

4.1 公司简介 10

4.1.1 基本情况 10

4.1.2 财务状况 10

4.2 财务风险识别 10

4.2.1 筹资风险识别 10

4.2.2 投资风险识别 12

4.2.3 经营风险识别 12

第五章 万科企业股份有限公司的财务风险预警机制的研究 14

5.1 预警机制的作用 14

5.1.1 财务风险预警机制强化要点 14

5.1.2 完善房地产财务风险预警机制的方法 14

5.2 结合万科集团具体分析财务风险预警机制 15

结 论 16

致 谢 17

参考文献 18

第一章 绪 论

1.1 研究背景和意义

1.1.1 研究背景

随着我国经济制度的完善发展以及国家产业结构的优化升级，房地产行业对我国的经济方面的贡献不断增强，是我国国家经济的重要支撑。房地产行业在我国的开始发展较早，自从我们国家的住房制度于1998年变动以来，房地产市场也从此时在我国正式地发展起来。国家在发展中长期累积下来的购房需求得到释放，在一方面加强了我们国家的经济增长，另一方面也促进了乡镇农村的城市化发展。同时也促进中国房地产业的发展规模的不断变化并导致了房地产建筑面积不断增长。该产业对于推动国家实体经济发展有着十分重要的作用。根据大数据显示，我国房地产行业的投资额从2000年4984亿元增加到2019年141443亿元，房地产的开发企业实收资本从2001年6019.86亿元增加到2019年105248.81亿元，房地产开发企业资产总计从2001年28566.81亿元增加到2019年947935.60亿元。通过这三个方面的数据可以看出房地产行业对我国经济发展有着十分重大的贡献。此外，我国的一些其他行业也受着房地产市场的影响。在国家一些房地产企业的推动下，也极大地带领了像钢筋水泥行业、装修行业、以及家具家电行业等有关联的上下游行业的发展,实现了一整条产业的优化升级和协同发展。房地产行业在一定程度上推动了我国经济发展和社会进步，所以国家经济社会的稳定繁荣需要确保房地产行业的稳定发展。

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