论文总字数：23584字

摘 要

近些年来，随着我国进出口贸易不停地扩大，我国各个内河港口发展迅猛，水路运输、内河船舶交通的流量日益增多。并且，为有利发展，我国逐渐在长江、黄河上修建起了大量的跨河、跨江桥梁。这些情况都大大的增加了发生水上交通事故的几率。一旦在桥区水域发生重大的水上交通事故，就会威胁船上、桥上人员的生命安全，并给我国经济造成十分严重的损失。为了杜绝种种情况的发生，我们更加应该去研究船舶的通过能力。

为了能在内河航道桥区水域航道范围确定的情况下，让尽可能多的船舶、特别是大型船舶安全的通过桥梁；为了减少和杜绝船舶因搁浅、碰撞而导致航道堵塞的情况发生；为了杜绝船舶在桥区水域航行时碰撞桥梁，严重威胁桥上桥下人民的安全，给社会造成重大财产损失的情况发生；为了能够让海事部门、航运公司合理的协调航班航次，桥区水域船舶的通过能力研究将会是是十分重要的。

本文将运用数理统计等数学工具，结合相应的计算模型对我国特定桥区水域——武汉长江大桥桥区水域进行船舶通过能力的研究，在数据的处理过程中，由于条件限制，将会在船讯网进行观测。本文将总共分为六章，将分别从航道通过能力综述、桥区水域船舶通过能力研究分析与计算模型的确定、桥区水域航道范围的确定来进行叙述，以此来进行最后武汉长江大桥桥区水域船舶的通过能力的计算，并作总结。

关键词：桥区水域；船舶通过能力；交通流

Abstract

In recent years, with the fast development of the economy of our country, the development of various inland ports in our country is rapid, and the flow of waterway transportation and inland ship traffic is increasing day by day. In addition, so as to facilitate the development of both sides of the river and the surrounding areas, China has gradually built a large number of bridges across the river and river on the inland waterway. These conditions greatly increase the probability of major water traffic accidents in inland waters, especially in bridge waters. Once a major water traffic accident occurs in the water area of the bridge area, it may block the inland waterway and the water area of the bridge area, interrupt the inland transportation, even threaten the life safety of the people on board and the bridge, and cause very serious losses to the economy of our country. In order to put an end to all kinds of situations, we should study the carrying capacity of ships in the waters of the bridge area.

In order to allow as many ships, especially large ships, to pass through the bridge safely when the scope of the water channel in the bridge area of the inland waterway is determined; in order to reduce and put an end to the situation of the ship's channel blocking due to grounding and collision; in order to put an end to the collision of the ship with the bridge when navigating in the water area of the bridge area, which seriously threatens the safety of the people on and under the bridge and causes great wealth to the society In order to make the maritime department and shipping companies coordinate the flights reasonably, it is very important to study the carrying capacity of ships in the bridge area.

This paper will use some mathematical tools, combined with the corresponding calculation model to study the ship's carrying capacity in the water area of Wuhan Yangtze River Bridge area. This article will be written in six parts, which will be described from the summary of channel capacity, the research and analysis of ship capacity in bridge area, the determination of calculation model, and the determination of channel range in bridge area, so as to carry out the final calculation of ship capacity in Wuhan Yangtze River Bridge area, and make a summary.

Key words：Bridge waterway；Transit capacity；Traffic Flow；

目 录

第1章 绪论 1

1.1 研究背景 1

1.2 研究目的及意义 1

1.2.1 研究的目的 1

1.2.2 研究意义 2

1.3 研究内容及技术路线 3

1.3.1 研究内容 3

1.3.2 技术路线 3

1.4 本章小结 4

第2章 航道通过能力综述 5

2.1 航道通过能力的概念 5

2.2 国内外相关研究现状 5

2.2.1 国外研究现状 6

2.2.2 国内研究现状 6

2.3 船舶尺度 8

2.4 船舶领域 8

2.4.1 船舶领域的概念 8

2.4.2 内河船舶领域模型介绍 9

2.5 船舶交通流 9

2.5.1 船舶流的基本属性 9

2.5.2 船舶流参数 10

2.6 内河桥区水域航道尺度 11

2.6.1 航道水深 11

2.6.2 内河航道宽度 12

2.6.3 桥区水域桥梁净空尺度 12

2.7 本章小结 13

第3章 桥区水域船舶通过能力研究与分析 14

3.1 概述 14

3.2 桥区水域船舶通过能力影响因素 14

3.2.1 自然环境因素 15

3.2.2 人工环境因素 15

3.2.3 交通环境因素 15

3.3 航道通过能力计算公式 16

3.4 建立桥区水域船舶通过能力计算模型 16

3.4.1 桥区水域船舶通航系数的确定 17

3.4.2 通航期系数的确定 17

3.4.3 桥区水域船舶助航系统修正系数 17

3.4.4 船舶间相互干扰系数 18

3.5 本章小结 18

第4章 桥区水域航道范围界定 20

4.1 有关标准与规定 20

4.2 桥区水域航道范围界定的方法 20

4.3 武汉长江大桥桥区水域航道范围的界定 21

4.4 本章小结 23

第5章 武汉长江大桥桥区水域通过能力研究 24

5.1 桥区通航环境概述 24

5.2 桥区船舶交通流概况 24

5.3 船舶流到达概率分布解析 25

5.4 武汉长江大桥桥区水域航道通过能力计算 26

第6章 研究结果与展望 27

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