摘 要

传统的现场警戒一般为划定警戒区域，使用警戒船舶等资源对附近船舶实施警戒的一种“区域化”的警戒方式，此类警戒方式存在警戒资源较为浪费和对通航效率影响较大的问题。为保障水上飞机水面起降和附近船舶的通航安全，最大程度提高起降水域的船舶通航效率，节约监管资源，提高海事监管效率，研究一种基于碰撞危险评判的水上飞机起降水域分级警戒决策。

以国内外关于水上飞机起降安全的研究和事故调查为基础，通过分析速度变化等水上飞机起降运动特性，借助船舶与船舶的碰撞危险理论，构建最近会遇距离（DCPA）和安全会遇距离（SDA）模型，由此，提出水上飞机与船舶碰撞危险二维评判模型。利用MATLAB计算机软件，实现计算与评判。根据评判结果，按危险程度大小构建分级警戒体系，并确定相应的警戒方案和警戒措施，从而形成水上飞机起降水域警戒决策。

论文以三亚水上飞机起降操作为例对研究成果进行实例验证。

研究结果表明，碰撞危险评判模型能有效判别水上飞机与附近水域随机出现的船舶（保向保速）是否存在碰撞危险，并根据碰撞危险的评判结果确定起降水域分级警戒决策，最大程度的保障起降水域的船舶通航安全和效率，实现水上飞机起降水域警戒决策科学化和船舶通航高效化。

关键词：水上飞机；碰撞危险评判模型；起降安全；警戒决策

Abstract

The traditional on-site maritime supervision is a regional method by setting an alert area and using the resources such as alert ships to keep the nearby ships alert. The drawback of this method lies in a waste of maritime supervision resources and a significant impact on the navigation efficiency. In order to guarantee the navigation safety of both seaplane and ship nearby during the seaplane taking off and landing and improve the navigation efficiency of the takeoff and landing water, this research focuses on a hierarchical alert decision-making based on collision risk assessment. The research result will also assist to improve the efficiency of maritime supervision and save the supervision resources.

The assessment model of collision risk between seaplane and ship is developed based on the literature research and accident investigations regarding the seaplane safety during the takeoff and landing. By analyzing the movement characteristics of seaplane during takeoff and landing, especially the speed changing characteristics and combining the analysis theory of collision risk between ships , two models are developed, being for Distance at Closest Point of Approach (DCPA) and Safety Distance of Approach (SDA), which are the basis of the proposed two-dimensional assessment model for collision risk between seaplane and ship. The software MATLAB is adopted to calculate and pre-judge the risk. According to the judgment result, a hierarchical alert system is established based on the risk degree. The corresponding alert scheme and detailed measures are determined accordingly, which forms the alert decision-making for the takeoff and landing water of seaplanes.

Finally，a case study during the seaplane takeoff and landing in Sanya is carried out to validate the proposed risk assessment model.

The results prove the effectiveness of the model in judging the collision risk between a seaplane and a ship with a constant speed and course occurred stochastically in the nearby. Based on the judgement, the corresponding hierarchical alert decision can be made. With such a collision risk assessment, the navigation safety and efficiency of the takeoff and landing water can be guaranteed to the greatest extent. The alert decision during the seaplane taking off and landing would be made scientifically and the ships navigation would be kept highly efficient.

Key Words：Seaplane ；The risk assessment model of collision；the safety of Taking-off and landing；Alert decisions

目 录

第一章 绪论 1

1.1 水上飞机发展概述 1

1.2 水上飞机的营运管理现状 2

1.2.1 国外水上飞机营运管理现状 2

1.2.2 国内水上飞机营运管理现状 2

1.3 水上飞机起降水域警戒决策研究的意义 2

1.3.1 从水上飞机安全管理现状分析研究意义 3

1.3.2 从水上飞机属性分析研究意义 3

1.3.3 从水上飞机事故特征分析研究意义 3

第二章 水上飞机起降水域安全研究现状 5

2.1 国外研究现状 5

2.2 国内研究现状 6

2.3 水上飞机事故调查统计与分析 9

2.3.1 美国水上飞机事故调查统计与分析 9

2.3.2 国内水上飞机事故案例分析 9

第三章 水上飞机起降运动特性分析 10

3.1 水上飞机起降过程基本特征 10

3.2 水上飞机起降速度变化特征 11

第四章 船舶与水上飞机碰撞危险评判模型的建立 14

4.1 水上飞机领域模型 14

4.2 以水上飞机领域作为碰撞危险评判依据的合理性分析 17

4.3 基于水上飞机的运动特性构建碰撞危险评判模型 18

4.3.1 船舶碰撞危险评判的方法 18

4.3.2 船舶与水上飞机碰撞危险评判模型的构建 19

4.3.2.1 船舶与水上飞机的运动参数设定 19

4.3.2.2 基于水上飞机运动特性构建碰撞危险评判模型 23

第五章 基于碰撞危险评判的起降水域警戒决策 30

5.1 确定警戒决策的原则 30

5.2 起降水域警戒决策 30

5.2.1 警戒分级 30

5.2.2 警戒方案和警戒措施 30

5.2.3 海事与塔台协同警戒 31

第六章 实例验证 33

第七章 结论与展望 38

7.1 结论 38

7.2 创新点 38

7.3 展望 38

参考文献 40

附录A 41

致 谢 44

绪论

1.1 水上飞机发展概述

水上飞机（Seaplane）是指能在水面操纵而设计的任何航空器^[1]，水上飞机的发展进程大致分为早期水上飞机、二次大战时期水上飞机和现代水上飞机三个阶段。早期水上飞机发展不够成熟，起飞重量较小，飞行速度较慢。第二次世界大战时期是水上飞机发展的全盛时期，这个时期的水上飞机在设计和制造技术方面越发成熟，并在军用和民用领域都得到较为广泛的应用。二战结束后，随着大量优质陆上机场的出现，水上飞机的地位受到一定程度的影响，但多用途水上飞机仍具有许多陆基飞机所不具备的特点和优势^[2]。目前，水上飞机在世界范围内广泛应用于中短途运输、旅游、海洋维权和海上救助等领域。