论文总字数：32998字

摘 要

公交分担率是公交都市建设，公交优先发展的重要考核指标。目前，国际上对公交出行分担率的统计口径是多样的，对于相同的城市、相同的历史年，不同的统计口径得到的公交出行分担率可能大相径庭。此外，仅仅依靠单一的指标，一刀切的数据，不仅无法真实反映城市公共交通发展的水平，有碍于指导城市公交优先的实现，更严重的可能存在误导的隐患。因此，需要根据居民出行链特性构建公交分担率的关键指标体系，同时，通过科学的方法确定各指标的合理值域，为公共交通的发展提供科学的支撑。

本论文首先从公交分担率的相关理论入手，分析研究居民出行链特性；其次，根据现有研究成果及国内外公交分担率指标案例，综合分析影响公交分担率的各种因素，根据居民出行链特性采取德尔菲法选取关键的公交分担率指标；接着，采用实证的方法确定各公交分担率指标的合理值域范围；最后以南京为例，进行关键指标体系及合理值域的应用。

本论文所进行的研究对于评价大城市公共交通的发展程度和现状水平，为公共交通的发展提供科学的支撑及指明其未来发展方向有着理论指导意义。

关键词：公交分担率；德尔菲法法；关键指标与合理值域；物元分析模型；层次分析法

Research on the Key Index and Reasonable Value Field of Big City Public Transit Share Rate

Abstract

Public transport share rate is an important assessment indicator for the construction of urban public transport, bus priority development. At present, the statistical caliber of public transport share rate is diverse. for the same City, the same year history, the public transport share rate of different statistical caliber may differ. In addition, relying solely on a single index, one size fits all the data, not only can not be a true reflect the level of development of urban public traffic and hinder to guide the realization of urban public transport priority.More serious,misleading risks exist. Therefore, constructing the key index system public transport share rate according to residents travel characteristic chain is necessary, at the same time, determining the reasonable range of each index with the scientific method is necessary for providing scientific support for the development of public transport.

Firstly, this paper analyze the characteristics of the resident trip chain on the base of teasing the bus share rate of the relevant theory. Secondly, according to the existing research results of public transport share rate index case at home and abroad , a comprehensive analysis of the impact of public transport share rate of all kinds of factors and residents travel characteristic chain, the paper adopts Delphi method to select key index of public transport share rate share rate. Then, the paper takes demonstration to determine the reasonable value field of public transit share rate. Finally, the paper apply the key index and reasonable value field of public transit share rate to Nanjing.

The research results of this paper have theoretical guiding significance for evaluating the development and the Status level of the public transport of big city, providing scientific support for the development of public transport and indicating the direction of its future development.

Keywords:public transit share rate;Delphi method; key index and reasonable value field ; Matter Element Analysis Model；Analytic Hierarchy Process

目录

摘 要 I

Abstract II

第一章 绪论 1

1.1研究背景及意义 1

1.2国内外研究综述 1

1.3主要研究内容 2

1.4技术路线 3

第二章 公交分担率多样性分析 4

2.1公交分担率相关概念 4

2.2出行链相关概念 6

2.2.1出行链 6

2.2.2出行链多样性分析 7

2.3公共交通出行链 8

第三章 公交分担率关键指标与合理值域的确定 9

3.1指标体系的功能及选取原则 9

3.1.1功能 9

3.1.2选取原则 9

3.2公交分担率关键指标体系 10

3.2.1候选指标的初步确定 10

3.2.2关键指标的选取方法研究 11

3.2.3关键指标的确定 12

3.3公交分担率合理值域研究 13

3.3.1南京市公交分担率关键指标现状分析 13

3.3.2大城市关键指标值分析 14

3.3.3合理值域的确定 16

第四章 公交分担率关键指标及合理值域的应用——以南京为例 18

4.1南京市交通系统概况 18

4.1.1社会经济状况 18

4.1.2交通运输发展 19

4.3物元分析模型 21

4.3.1物元分析模型概述 21

4.3.2应用 24

4.4层次分析法与广义函数法 25

4.4.1层次分析法、广义函数法概述 25

4.4.2应用 27

4.5应用分析及建议 28

第五章 结论与展望 29

致 谢 30

参考文献 31

第一章 绪论

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