摘 要

随着电子商务的飞速发展，网上购物的人数迅速增加范围不断扩大。互联网的飞速发展使得多种多样的网络商业模式出现，同时互联网普及率大大提升，电子商务企业的拔地而起，网络在线购物已经成为必然势不可挡。突变理论符合消费者在线购买受到多因素影响而感知的变化过程，对于研究消费者在线购物突变情况具有一定的现实意义。

在获得极大效益的同时，网络购物市场也在所难免的如同传统市场出现了越来越多的欺诈和财产安全问题，并且由于在线支付购买的特殊性，更使得发生欺骗危险的系数增加，使得消费者消费态度受到影响下滑，消费者的信心受到极大影响，从而极大的遏制了在线网购市场的向前发展,制约着网购平台在中国的进一步发展与繁荣。主顾在网络购物过程中面临着诸多要素会影响其最终是否交易的决定，容易发生对某一产品或品台态度的忽然转变。我们所研讨分析的对象是以有过网上购物的人群铺开的，。

本文基于突变理论对顾客购物过程分析，对主顾网上购买物品的经过去分析研讨，同时对主顾网上消费经过的实际情形概括分析，最终探讨总结出顾客在平台浏览查找的举动和最终下单的意愿，为提供在线购物的平台以及商家提供建设性的参考。并因此给出了一些具体措施建议，谋求帮助网购平台降低消费者购买突变的发生。

关键词：在线购物；突变理论；影响要素；总体分析

Abstract

With the rapid development of electronic commerce, the number of online shopping rapidly increase scope expands unceasingly.The rapid development of Internet makes a variety of network business model, at the same time to enhance the Internet penetration, the rise of e-commerce enterprises, online shopping has become the inevitable overwhelming.Catastrophe theory conforms to the consumer buying online is affected by many factors and the changing process of perception, to study the consumer online shopping mutations situation has a certain practical significance.

In obtain great benefits at the same time, the network shopping market also inevitable appeared more and more like a traditional market fraud and property safety, and due to the particularity of online purchases, more make deceptive dangerous coefficient increase, make consumer attitudes affected decline, consumer confidence greatly affected, thus greatly curb the forward development of online shopping market, restricts the further development of e-commerce platform in China and prosperity.Customer facing many factors in the process of online shopping will affect whether the trading decisions, eventually likely to happen for a product or a suddenly change of attitude.Our discussion analysis object is had online shopping the crowd spread out,.

Based on the catastrophe theory to customers shopping process analysis, through to analysis of customer purchase items online discussion, at the same time to the actual situation of customers online consumption through summary analysis, finally discusses customer is summarized in the platform willingness to browse for behavior and the final order to provide online shopping platform and merchants to provide constructive reference.And therefore gives some Suggestions on specific measures, seek help online shopping platform to reduce consumers from buying mutations occur.

Key Words：Online shopping；Catastrophe theory；Influence factors；The overall analysis

目 录

摘 要 I

Abstract II

第1章 绪论 1

1.1 选题背景 1

1.2 研究目的及意义 2

1.3 国内外突变理论研究动态 2

1.4 基本内容和技术方案 3

第2章 突变理论 5

2.1 突变理论概述 5

2.2 变理论基本类型 5

2.3 突变理论应用范围 6

第3章 理论模型构建与分析 8

3.1基本原理解析与模型公式 8

3.2主要影响因素与和指标体系建立 8

3.3在线购物算例分析 10

第4章 网购平台发展建议 13

4.1信用标准需严格统一 13

4.2严格管理商品质量信号传递需 13

4.3高度重视在线评论价值 13

第5章 总结与展望 15

参考文献 16

致 谢 18

第1章 绪论

近年来，互联网的飞速发展使得各种新兴的网络商务模式出现，同时互联网普及率大大提升，而在获得极大效益的同时，网络购物市场也在所难免的如同传统市场出现了越来越多的欺诈和财产安全问题，并且由于在线支付购买的特殊性，更使得发生欺骗危险的系数增加，使得消费者消费态度受到影响下滑，消费者的信心受到极大影响，从而极大的遏制了在线网购市场的向前发展。文章以主顾网络下单购买作为举例研讨，根据主顾购买物品过程进行分析探讨，最后根据消费者购买商品经过中的实际情形来研讨分析主顾的采购行为和置办意愿，最后基于突变理论进行综合分析与评价，并对网上商家和第三方企业予以一定的倡议。

1.1 选题背景