论文总字数：24256字

摘 要

随着国内房地产行业的蓬勃发展，家电市场在整个国民经济中所占的比重越来越大。国内滋生出美的、海尔等知名热水器品牌，外资品牌也纷纷涌入中国市场，艾欧史密斯公司就是其中一员。与此同时，信息化技术的快速发展使得电子商务模式给热水器线下销售带来了巨大的冲击。近两年，家电销售越来越受电子商务模式影响，家电企业之间的竞争不仅局限于传统销售，线上渠道家电销量的转变远远超过线下渠道。拥有强大线上销售能力的家电企业提高了企业本身的核心竞争力，未来将有望赢得市场的主动权。数据显示天猫、京东、苏宁易购占据了史密斯热水器线上销售很大比例。从品牌来看，中低端产品网上销售更具优势。销售模式的转变和行业竞争的加剧使得艾欧史密斯在中国面临着艰难的挑战。与此同时，在互联网购物环境下，消费者可以从在线评论中获取更多的产品信息，从而更好的进行购买决策。基于在线评论对消费者、企业、平台等多方的重要性，研究在线评论对史密斯热水器提升竞争力具有重要的实际意义和价值。

本文将AO史密斯苏宁自营旗舰店作为主要研究对象，通过八爪鱼数据采集器收集了AO史密斯苏宁自营旗舰店的近5000条评论数据。在对在线评论相关文献的研究、对中国热水器市场、艾欧史密斯热水器公司地了解和数据的整理基础上，确定以有图评论数、追评数、评论字数、5星评论数4个变量作为自变量，因变量则是史密斯热水器销量，并提出4个研究假设。

在上述基础上建立多元线性回归模型对产品的评论数据进行统计分析，发现有图评论数、追评数、评论字数、5星级评论数对史密斯热水器销量有显著正向影响，假设得以验证，之后对模型进行了拟合优度、方程显著性和回归系数显著性检验，确保本文使用多元线性回归方法的合理性，并在此基础上根据分析结果，为史密斯热水器线上的营销策略及电商平台的评论体系提出优化建议。

关键词：史密斯热水器；销售量；在线评论；八爪鱼；多元线性回归

Influence of Online Evaluation on A.O.Smith Water Heater Hales

Abstract

, The proportion of home appliance market in the whole national economy is increasing with the rapid development of the domestic industry. Famous water heater brands such as Midea and Haier have emerged in China, and foreign brands have also got into the Chinese market, among which A.O.SMITH company is one of them. At the same time, the rapid development of information technology makes the e-commerce mode bring a huge impact to the offline sales of water heaters. In recent years, home appliance sales are more and more affected by e-commerce mode. Home appliance enterprises with strong online sales capabilities have improved their core competitiveness and are expected to win the initiative in the market in the future. Data shows that TMALL, JD and Suning e-commerce account for a large proportion of Smith's online sales of water heaters. From the perspective of brand, online sales of middle and low-end products have more advantages. The transformation of sales mode and the intensification of industry competition make A.O.SMITH face a difficult challenge in China. At the same time, in the Internet shopping environment, consumers can get more product information from online reviews, so as to make better purchase decisions. Based on the importance of online reviews to consumers, enterprises and platforms, it is of great practical significance and value to study online reviews to enhance the competitiveness of Smith water heater.

This paper takes AO Smith Suning self owned flagship store as the main research object, and collects nearly 5000 comment data of AO Smith Suning self owned flagship store through Octopus data collector. On the basis of the research on the related literature of online review, the understanding of Chinaese water heater market and A.O.SMITH water heater company, four variables are determined as independent variables: the number of comments with drawings, the number of comments, the number of comments, and the number of five-star comments. The dependent variable is the sales volume of Smith's water heater, and four research hypotheses are put forward.

On the basis of the above, a multiple linear regression model is established to analyze the product review data, and it is found that the number of comments with charts, the number of comments, the number of comments, and the number of 5-star comments have a significant positive impact on the sales volume of Smith water heater. The hypothesis is verified, and then equation and regression coefficient importance are tested to ensure that this paper uses multiple regression based on the results, the optimization suggestions for the marketing strategy of Smith water heater online and the comment system of e-commerce platform are put forward.

Key words: A.O.Smith water heater; Sales volume; Online review; Octopus Setup; Multiple regression

目 录

摘 要 I

Abstract II

第一章 绪 论 1

1.1 研究背景 1

1.2 研究意义 1

1.3 研究内容及方法 1

1.4 论文框架 2

第二章 文献综述 3

2.1 多元线性回归理论基础 3

2.1.1 多元线性回归模型定义 3

2.1.2 多元线性回归模型的检验 3

2.2 在线评论的概念 3

2.3 在线评论对商品销量的影响研究 4

第三章 中国热水器市场基本情况分析 6

3.1 热水器行业发展历史 6

3.2 热水器产品分类及加热原理 6

3.3 热水器市场占有率分析 7

第四章 艾欧史密斯热水器（中国）公司基本情况 9

4.1 产品介绍及线上店铺发展现状 9

4.2 艾欧史密斯热水器公司SWOT分析 9

第五章 在线评论对史密斯热水器线上销售影响分析 12

5.1 史密斯热水器线上销售影响因素模型设计 12

5.1.1 自变量定义 12

5.1.2 因变量定义 13

5.1.3 研究假设 13

5.1.4 数据来源及数据预处理 13

5.2 在线评论对史密斯热水器销量影响多元线性回归分析 14

5.2.1多元线性回归模型 14

5.2.2 回归模型的分析与检验 14

5.3 决策建议 16

5.3.1 对史密斯热水器线上店铺的建议 16

5.3.2 对电商平台的决策建议 17

结论与展望 18

参考文献 19

致 谢 21

附录 数据收集样本 22

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