摘 要

从1970年开始，地球上经历了三个决定性的石油价格变更，经历了1973年和1979年的两次次石油危机之后，油价的上升从2002开始，一直维持到今日。从2002的11美元一桶石油，升到每桶21美元，一路涨到2008后的100美元每桶，在2008季度已经达到最高点的147美元。2009六月份之后，一直维持在70美元左右。自2010年初起，逐渐步出低谷的全球经贸，特别是在东南亚、中亚各国的经济强力回升，当石油价格稳定上调情况完成，在七十至八十美元。2012全球原油价格呈现出宽幅震荡，Brent平均油价为2.59美元/盎司，刷新了历史纪录；WTI原油平均价格为94.15美元/桶，略低于2011。据估算在2013世界经济增长将高于2012，从而刺激增长，世界石油需求，略高于2012；虽然北美非常规石油产量仍有望保持快速增长，但在沙特阿拉伯，欧佩克产油国大幅削减，苏丹南部，原油供应中断，预计将2013世界石油市场供应仍然紧张，不稳定的地缘局势也将继续构成国际油价的强烈支持。据估算2013的大部分情况下全球原油价格将在固定范围内调整，原油价格大部分都在100-125$/盎司的范围内震荡.平均价格高于2012；WTI和Brent原油减利润区间较2013有所减少，可是Brent和中东原油价格将受到了广泛的影响。2014个国内成品油市场进行了19次的价格调整，相比2013，15的增长27%，成为最一年以来2009的价格调整。其中，数量最多的4次，同比下降15倍，同比下降的比例为79%，价格调整的比例为百分之15，而其下调的幅度在百分之11上下。2014汽油的价格每一吨调整为¥2120，柴油的价格每一吨调整为¥2295.降价幅度最为2009。2016年7月25号国际油价成交上涨$0.94.成交为每一桶9.56美元/桶，是去年10月9日以来的最大额的成交价格。在美国环境影响评估原油库存数据发布之前，原油价格维持在49.20美元/桶附近的窄侧。回顾石油价格的情况，全球原油价格持续飙升，表达了急剧向上波动和极度震荡的局面。原油是人类进步和维持生命的重要财富，于国民经济和人民生活中享有举足轻重的地位。因此，注重研究全球油价震荡的根源会帮助加快全球贸易发展和金融的平缓发展涵盖了令人瞩目的真实利益。全球油价震荡对我国贸易增速有相当的影响，油价震荡规律会帮助促进中国贸易上升存在明显的意义。这篇论文经由理智的思考国际油价震荡，了解油价对中国贸易的阴影，并指明了调节中国生产和外贸的对应方法。

关键词：国际石油；价格；波动；经济

I

Abstract

Since 1970 the world has experienced three significant oil prices, in addition to the two oil crisis in 1973 and 1979, the price of oil rose from 2002 to start, has been a continuation of today. From 2002 oil price of $21 a barrel, all the way up to more than 100 U.S. dollars in 2008, during the second quarter of 2008 has reached the highest point of $147. After June 2009, has been maintained at around $70. From the beginning of 2010, the world economy gradually out of the valley, especially in the Asian countries a strong rebound in the economy, when oil prices stabilized after the rise of the situation, in the 70-80. 2012 international oil prices overall were wide concussion, Brent crude oil average price is $2.59 / barrel, hit an all-time high; WTI crude oil average price for $94.15 / barrel, slightly lower than in 2011. Is expected in 2013 world economic growth will be higher than in 2012, thereby stimulating growth in world oil demand, slightly higher than the 2012; although North American unconventional oil production is still expected to maintain a rapid growth, but in Saudi Arabia, OPEC producers cut sharply, and southern Sudan, disruption of crude oil supply has not been restored, is expected to 2013 world oil market supply remains tight; shaky geopolitical situation will also continue to constitute a strong support of the international oil prices. Is expected in 2013 the international oil prices for most of the time was the interval concussion, Brent oil prices for most of the time at $100125 / barrel range fluctuations. The average price is higher than the 2012; WTI and Brent crude oil negative spreads over 2012 narrowed, but Brent and Dubai crude oil price will have drawn wide. 2014 domestic refined oil market carried out 19 times the price adjustment, compared to 2013, an increase of 15 in 27%, becoming the most year since 2009 price adjustment. Among them, the number of up to 4 times, down 15 times, down the number of times the proportion of the price adjustment is 79%, while the 15 down in the 11 belong to fall. 2014 gasoline adjusted by 2120 yuan per ton, diesel adjustment of 2295 yuan per ton, the price cut by the most since 2009. May 25, 2016 international oil prices closed up $0.94, or 1.9%, at $49.56 / barrel, the highest closing price since last October 9th. In the United States EIA crude oil inventory data released before oil prices remained at $49.20 / barrel near the narrow sideways. Throughout the history of oil prices, the international oil prices all the way higher, showing a sharp rise and sharp fluctuations in the situation. Oil is the social development and the human survival essential resources, occupies an important position in the national economy and the people's livelihood. Therefore, an in-depth study of international oil price fluctuation reasons for promoting world economic growth and economic stability has important realistic significance. The price fluctuation of international oil market has certain influence on the economic development of our country, and the rule of oil price fluctuation is important to promote the economic growth of our country. This paper makes an objective analysis of the international oil price fluctuation, and discusses the impact of oil price on China's economic mechanism, and then puts forward the corresponding countermeasures to adjust China's industrial development and foreign trade.

key words：world oil market；oil price；fluctuate；economy

II

目 录

第1章 前言---------------------------------------------------------6

1.1内在动因----------------------------------------------------6

1.2长周期影响因素----------------------------------------------6

1.3短期波动因素------------------------------------------------8

第2章 全球油价涨跌对我国经济的波动与机制--------------------------10

2.1总量传导机制-----------------------------------------------10

2.2配置传导机制-----------------------------------------------11

2.3投资需求传导-----------------------------------------------11

2.4利率传导机制-----------------------------------------------11

2.5汇率传导机制-----------------------------------------------12

第3章 建立完善的石油战略体系--------------------------------------13

3.1应对石油价格波动的价格策略---------------------------------13

3.2加大能源战略储备体系建设-----------------------------------13