摘 要

P2P（peer-to-peer）网络借贷，基于的是互联网金融商务平台，人与个人之间的小额借贷交易。P2P网络借贷受到小微企业、个人欢迎，原因在于其特点为门槛低、聚焦于无抵押借贷、透明化的借款方式。从美国2008年金融危机开始，网络借贷飞速发展的时期，与传统金融的萧条截然不同。蓬勃发展的同时，P2P网络借贷较高的违约率和信用风险，逐渐引起人们的重视，制约网络借贷的健康发展。

文章选取排序选择模型，采用数据挖掘技术，以宏程序为手段，从网页抓取信息，截取两个网站的数据，文章分别采用A贷网站、B贷网站作为代号。挖掘分析影响网络借贷信用风险的因素，结果表明：借款期限、信用评价等级、借款利率和历史借贷还款表现影响程度较高。

实证表明高级别的信用等级，信用风险并不一定低，网站并未起到相应的作用。基于P2P网络借贷时的信用，会存在一些风险上的问题，平台在防范这些问题时，没有较好的措施。传统借贷能将风险控制在一个范围内，主要是得益于银行等机构，对借贷进行的审核与监管。另外银行能够掌握借款人的各种方方面面的信息，加上其具备强大的风险评估能力，所以能够减少甚至规避信息的不对称问题，提高安全系数。然而网贷平台却难以掌握借款人真实资料，无法保证贷款的安全性。

本文通过采集数据、实证研究，采用概率论与数理统计的相关估计方法对影响网贷信用风险的因素影响能力进行评估，从而针对影响因素对网络借贷平台提出合理建议，为规范化网络借贷提供参考依据。将各种信息结合起来，更好地规范信用风险。

关键词：P2P 网络借贷；信用风险；互联网金融；

Abstract

Peer-to-peer (Peer-to-Peer) network lending, based on the Internet financial business platform, between individuals and small loan transactions. Peer-to-peer network lending is welcomed by small businesses and individuals because of its low threshold, focused on unsecured lending, and transparent borrowing. From the beginning of the 2008 financial crisis in the United States, the period of rapid development of internet lending is very different from that of traditional financial. At the same time, the high default rate and credit risk of peer-to-peer network have aroused people's attention gradually, which restricts the healthy development of network loan.

The article chooses the sort choice model, uses the data mining technology, takes the macro program as the method, captures the information from the webpage, intercepts two websites ' data, the article uses a loan website, the B loan website as the code name respectively. By digging and analyzing the factors that influence the credit risk of network loan, the results show that the loan term, credit rating, loan interest rate and historical loan repayment performance have a higher influence.

The empirical evidence shows that higher levels of credit, credit risk is not necessarily low, the site does not play a corresponding role. Based on the credit of Peer-to-peer network, there are some risk problems, and the platform has no good measures to prevent these problems. The traditional lending can control the risk in a range, mainly benefited from the bank and other institutions, the audit and supervision of lending. In addition, the bank can grasp the various aspects of the borrower's information, coupled with its strong risk assessment capability, so can reduce or even avoid the asymmetric information problems, improve the safety factor. However, the network loan platform is difficult to grasp the real information of borrowers, can not guarantee the security of loans.

Through collecting data and empirical research, this paper uses the method of probability theory and mathematical statistics to evaluate the influencing ability of credit risk factors, and puts forward reasonable suggestions on the network loan platform, which can provide reference for standardizing network lending. Combine all kinds of information to better standardize credit risk.

Key Words：P2P network credit; credit risk; Internet finance;

目 录

摘 要 I

Abstract II

第1章 绪论 1

1.1 研究背景 1

1.2 研究意义 1

1.3国内外研究现状 2

1.3.1国内现状 2

1.3.2国外现状 3

1.4研究方法 4

第2章 网络借贷信用风险影响因素理论基础 5

2.1 互联网金融理论 5

2.2 民间金融理论 5

2.3信用风险理论 6

2.3.1 信用风险的成因 6

2.3.2 信用风险管理理论 7

第3章 影响P2P网络借贷信用风险的因素 8

3.1 信用风险影响因素理论 8

3.2 我国P2P网贷平台信用风险影响因素的管理及漏洞 9

第4章 P2P网络借贷信用风险影响因素的实证研究 10

4.1模型建立 10

4.2 回归结果分析 10

4.3 P2P 网络借贷信用风险影响因素实证结果分析 11

4.4政策建议 11

4.4.1建立统一规范的信用评分体系 11

4.4.2 加强用户信用审查 12

4.4.3 加强用户信息保护 12

4.4.4促进信息共享发展 12

第5章 总结与展望 14

5.1 总结 14

5.2 展望 14

参考文献 15

致 谢 16

第1章 绪论

1.1 研究背景

如今，信息技术与互联网正处于高速发展的时期，互联网金融模式也不断取得突破，并成为了一种全新的金融融资方式，这当中最为典型的就是P2P网络借贷[1]。

P2P网络借贷指的是个体之间通过互联网所完成的借贷行为。当一方持有多余资金并且希望利用这笔资金进行投资以赚取更多回报，其可以借助互联网金融平台，将资金以贷款的形式借给对资金有需求的个体。P2P网络借贷平台的产生，缓解了许多中小企业融资困难的压力。P2P网络借贷也可以叫做B贷，因为这种模式是通过将小额资金汇拢到一起，形成集群效应，再借贷给有需要的人。P2P网络借贷最先起源于欧美地区的公益贷款。。时间为1976年，地点发生在某个乡村，创始人穆罕默德·尤努斯教授因为土著居民无生产资料，只能出卖劳动。穆罕默德将27美元分开贷给42位土著居民，作为其购买生产资料的资金。让人感到吃惊的是，此次贷款竟然达到了98.7%的偿还率，进而在世界上掀起了一阵波澜，从而开辟了小额贷款模式，如今已发展成为基于互联网的新型金融借贷模式，并且对经济发展具有极大促进作用。

1.2 研究意义