摘 要

自1998年以来，房地产行业不仅在我国GDP中的占比逐年提升，对相关行业的拉动系数逐年增大，而且与人民的生活水平，生活质量息息相关。但由于对金融业的过分依赖等，房地产业蕴含着巨大的金融风险，如房地产泡沫的多次产生，2008年次级贷款危机的发生，都是因为房地产金融风险未能得到有效的管控。2016年国家推行“房住不炒”政策对房地产金融风险实行进一步管控。本文就是探究“房住不炒”政策对房地产金融风险管控的有效性以及不同“房住不炒”举措对房地产金融风险如何影响。

本文在对房地产金融风险识别及房地产金融风险管控等相关文献进行了综述后，对“房住不炒政策”的基本内涵以及主举措进行探究；并对房地产金融风险的形成、传导机制，以及现状做了分析；最后通过定量分析证实了 “房住不炒”政策对房地产金融风险管控的有效性；并探究不同的举措发挥着不同影响；最后基于以上定性和定量分析，对我国的房地产金融风险监管提出合理化建议。

关键词：房地产金融风险； “房住不炒”金融政策；实证分析；监管对策

ABSTACT

Since 1998, the real estate industry has not only increased its share of China ’s GDP year by year, but its pull coefficient for related industries has increased year by year, and it is closely related to people ’s living standards and quality of life.

However, due to the excessive reliance on the financial industry, the real estate industry contains huge financial risks. For example, the real estate bubble had occurred many times, and the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis occurred because the real estate financial risks had not been controlled effectively. In 2016, China implemented the policy of “housing is not for speculation” to control the real estate financial risks further. This article is to explore whether the policy of “housing is not for speculation” works effectively on controlling the real estate financial risks and how different measures under the policy of “housing is not for speculation” affect the real estate financial risks.

After reviewing the relevant literature on identification of the real estate financial risk and controlling of the real estate financial risks, this article I wrote explored the basic connotation, main measures of the policy of " housing is not for speculation "; the formation; mechanism of transmission, and current status of real estate financial risks. What’s more, through quantitative analysis, I confirmed the effectiveness of the policy of " housing is not for speculation " on real estate financial risk management; and explored the different impacts of different measures. At last, based on the above qualitative and quantitative analysis, I put forward reasonable suggestions for the real estate financial risk regulation of China.

Key Words: Real Estate financial risk；“Housing is not speculation” financial policy； Empirical Analysis； Regulatory advice

目 录

摘要

Abstract

目录

第1章 引言 1

1.1 研究背景 1

1.2 研究意义 1

1.3 国内外文献综述 2

1.3.1 房地产金融风险的管控 2

1.4 研究方法与框架 3

第2章 中国房地产金融风险机制及当前政策分析 4

2.1 我国房地产金融风险及其形成和传导机制 7

2.1.1 融资结构 7

2.1.2房地产金融风险的形成机制 7

2.1.3房地产金融风险的传导机制 10

2.2 “房住不炒”政策的基本内涵简述及相关政策分析 4

2.2.1 基本内涵 4

2.2.2 相关政策及优先性政策 4

2.2.3 必要性分析 5

第3章 “房住不炒”政策对房地产金融风险的影响 13

3.1 变量定义与描述性统计分析 13

3.1.1变量定义 13

3.1.2 数据来源 13

3.1.3 描述性统计分析 13

3.2 实证过程及结果分析 15

3.2.1 相关性 15

3.2.2 实证结果分析 15

3.2.3 小结 16

第4章 根据实证结果对中国房地产金融风险监管建议 17

4.1 强化信贷政策 17

4.2 完善土地机制 17

4.3 加强监管，多部门联合 17

结论与展望 19

参考文献 20

致谢 21

第1章 引言

1.1 研究背景

自1998年以来，房地产行业不仅在我国GDP中的占比逐年提升，对相关行业的拉动系数逐年增大，而且与人民的生活水平，生活质量息息相关。其开发及销售的运行机制决定了其区别于其他行业，具有商品价值高、投资周期长、投资规模大的特点，使得其机制的持续运行需要在金融行业的资金支持下进行，尤其是商业银行，并且这种关系随着房地产行业的发展持续加深。