论文总字数：20776字

摘 要

2005年中国汇率改革后影响显著，人民币汇率的波动幅度不像以往幅度较小，其波动的幅度越来越接近市场化。汇率表现了不同币种的货币相互兑换比例，在外汇市场上反映了一种货币的价格。汇率的波动幅度和趋势变化会对企业和国家的宏观经济有着重要的影响，所以汇率一向被作为反映金融市场甚至是宏观经济的一个重要指标。上市公司是一类特殊的经济主体，一般为各行业的龙头企业，且财务数据公开，其公开的财务报表中很多业务都会利用外币结算，所以汇率的变动对上市公司的发展有着重要的影响。国内的许多学者对人民币汇率的讨论主要集中在人民币汇率的形成机制、人民币汇率变动对国民经济的影响等方面，而关于汇率波动对上市公司业绩影响的研究却比较少。

本文首先介绍我国的汇率制度的发展进程，并对人民币汇率的波动进行趋势分析。接着，以我国上市公司中对汇率波动比较敏感的纺织行业为研究对象，将上市公司的业绩评价从盈利能力、偿债能力、营运能力、成长能力四个方面着手，分别选取具有代表性的重要指标，通过建立模型，分别进行回归，分析汇率波动对这几项指标的影响，并总结汇率波动对纺织业上市公司业绩的影响。最后，有针对性地提出上市公司应对汇率波动不利影响应采取的具体的措施建议，有效地避免汇率波动的风险。

关键词：人民币汇率波动 上市公司 业绩 汇率风险

The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation on the Performance of Listed Companies

--Empirical analysis based on 13 listed companies in the textile industry

Abstract

After the reform of China's exchange rate in 2005, the volatility of the RMB exchange rate was not as small as that of the past, and the fluctuation range of the RMB exchange rate was getting closer to the market. The exchange rate shows the proportion of the currency in different currencies, reflecting the price of a currency in the foreign exchange market. The volatility and trend of the exchange rate will have a significant impact on the macroeconomics of the business and the country, so the exchange rate has always been an important indicator of the financial market and even the macro economy. Listed companies are a kind of special economic subject, generally the leading enterprises in various industries. Their financial data are open, and many businesses will use foreign currency settlement. Therefore, the change of exchange rate has an important influence on the development of listed companies. Many domestic scholars pay attention to the formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate, the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on the national economy and so on, but researches about the exchange rate fluctuations on the performance of listed companies are not too much.

Firstly, this paper introduces the development process of China's exchange rate system and analyzes the trend of RMB exchange rate fluctuation. Then, this paper chooses the listed companies which are sensitive to exchange rate fluctuation as the research object. This paper analyzes the performance evaluation of listed companies from four aspects: profitability, solvency, operation ability and growth ability, and selects important representative indicators respectively. Through the establishment of the model, the regression analysis is carried out to analyze the exchange rate fluctuation and summarize the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the performance of textile industry listed companies. Finally, the proposed measures to deal with the adverse effects of exchange rate fluctuations should be taken to effectively avoid the risk of exchange rate fluctuations.

Key Words: RMB exchange rate fluctuation; Listed Company; Performance; Currency risk

目录

摘要 I

Abstract II

第一章 引言 1

1.1 研究背景与意义 1

1.2 文献综述 2

第二章 人民币汇率波动 5

2.1 我国人民币汇率制度的发展 5

2.2 美元对人民币汇率 6

2.3 人民币实际有效汇率 8

2.4 美元对人民币汇率与人民币实际有效汇率对比分析 9

第三章 汇率波动对上市公司业绩影响的实证研究 10

3.1 汇率变动对上市公司业绩影响的传导渠道 10

3.2 业绩评价指标体系简介 11

3.3 代表性业绩评价指标介绍 12

3.4 上市公司样本数据选取 13

3.5 回归模型建立 14

3.6 回归结果分析 16

第四章 上市公司应对汇率波动的对策建议 18

4.1 转变经营模式，提高竞争力 18

4.2 多元化外部融资，适度负债 18

4.3 选取多元、优质市场，降低成本 19

4.4 利用金融衍生产品，规避外汇风险 19

4.5 合理制定合同，选择有利结算币种 19

参考文献 21

致谢 23

第一章 引言

1.1研究背景与意义

2005年7月以后，人民币汇率形成机制已初步成型，其变动也越发的明显和频繁。汇率反映的是各种币种货币之间进行交换的比例，也可以说其表现了这种货币在市场上的交易价格。汇率目前已经作为一个金融市场甚至扩展到宏观市场的关键指标，原因是由于其波动幅度与升降趋势这两方面因素都与拥有外币交易业务的企业发展或国家经济有着密切的关联。布雷顿森林体系分崩离析以后，各国使用的汇率体系放弃了过去的盯住关系，进入多元化汇率制度的阶段。受到金融国际化的影响，各国的汇率波动越发频繁。2005年中国汇率改革后影响显著，人民币汇率的波动幅度不像以往幅度较小，其波动的幅度越来越接近市场化。

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