摘 要

电动汽车()在我们的生活中越来越普及，大规模的电动汽车接入电网将会影响电网的安全稳定运行，这是亟待解决的问题。要研究电动汽车与电网以及交通网络互动，首先进行电动汽车快充负荷预测的研究，但它具有很强的不确定性，要进行负荷预测，就需要对电动汽车用户的充电习惯、交通路况等因素进行研究。

为此，本文提出了一种电动汽车充电站快充负荷预测方法，不仅研究了电动汽车的移动负荷特性，也对其交通工具特性进行深入研究。首先建立了交通网络拓扑结构，通过数据挖掘，建立包含路段阻抗和节点阻抗的交通路阻模型。接着通过建立单体电动汽车模型，对单车的电池荷电状态和充电需求进行研究，搭建起了电动汽车充电站的负荷预测模型，并进行路径规划实验。最后以简化的网络进行对比分析验证模型的可行性。

本文的特色在：实现了交通网络和城市交通道路的物理耦合，使得交通网络模型具有较强的实用性；将交通路况按照拥挤程度分为畅通、缓行、拥挤、严重拥挤四类，细化了交通路阻模型；在交通网络模型中考虑了时间的连续性，使得日负荷曲线预测更为准确。

关键词：电动汽车；交通路网；负荷预测；路段阻抗；

Abstract

Electric vehicle (EV) is more and more popular in our life. Large-scale EV access to the grid will affect the safe and stable operation of the grid, which is an urgent problem to be solved. In order to study the interaction between electric vehicle and power grid and traffic network, the first step is to study the fast charging load forecasting of electric vehicle, but it has a strong uncertainty. To carry out load forecasting, it is necessary to study the charging habits, traffic conditions and other factors of electric vehicle users.

Therefore, this paper proposes a fast charging load forecasting method for electric vehicle charging station, which not only studies the moving load characteristics of electric vehicle, but also the vehicle characteristics. Firstly, the topological structure of traffic network is established. Through data mining, the traffic road resistance model including road impedance and node impedance is established. Then through the establishment of a single EV model, the battery state of charge and charging demand of single vehicle are studied, and the load forecasting model of EV charging station is built, and Dijkstra path planning experiment is carried out. Finally, a simplified Sioux Falls (SF) network is used to verify the feasibility of the model.

The characteristics of this paper are as follows: the physical coupling of traffic network and urban traffic road is realized, which makes the traffic network model have strong practicability; the traffic road condition is divided into four categories: smooth, slow, crowded and severe congestion according to the degree of congestion, and the traffic road resistance model is detailed; the continuity of time is considered in the traffic network model, which makes the daily load curve prediction more accurate

Key Words：electric vehicle; traffic network; load forecasting; road impedance; Dijkstra

目 录

摘 要 Ⅰ

Ⅱ

第1章 绪论 1

1.1 本文研究的目的 1

1.2 国内外研究综述 1

1.3 本文的章节安排 4

第2章 基于路段阻抗和节点阻抗的交通网络模型 5

2.1 交通网络模型拓扑结构 5

2.2 道路路阻模型 6

2.2.1 路段阻抗优化模型 7

2.2.2 节点阻抗模型 7

2.2.3 交通道路路阻模型 9

2.3 本章小结 9

第3章 电动汽车充电站负荷预测模型 10

3.1 单体EV模型 10

3.1.1电池荷电状态模型 10

3.1.2充电需求模型 10

3.2 基于的路径规划实验 11

3.2.1 先验路径算法 13

3.2.2 自适应路径算法 14

3.3 计算快充负荷 16

3.4 本章小结 16

第4章 算例分析 17

4.1 路径规划实验 17

4.2 对比分析 18

4.3 仿真分析 20

4.4 本章小结 21

第5章 总结与展望 22

5.1 研究结论 22

5.2 研究展望 22

参考文献 23

附 录 26

致 谢 30