摘 要

脑卒中又称中风，它是一类脑血液循环障碍性疾病，主要症状为猝然晕厥，昏迷不醒，伴发口角歪斜、语言不利进而出现半身不遂。该病常常会出现后遗症，年轻人患脑卒中的概率越来越大，因此，脑卒是威胁人类生活质量甚至生命的重大疾病。脑卒中包含缺血性脑卒中和出血性脑卒中两大类。流行病学调查表明：一些危险因素直接影响了脑卒中的发生。它们被分为两类：其中一类是无法改变的，如年龄、性别、家族史等；另一类是可以改变的，如职业、高血压、糖尿病等，对这些可以改变的因素实施有效的措施，则能明显降低脑卒中的发病率和死亡率。本论文研究这些环境因素的目的就是分析脑卒中发病率与环境因素的关系以及找到减少脑卒中发生的方法。

首先，本文分别从性别、职业、年龄段等角度对发病人群进行统计描述，作出直方图或者饼状图，从图中直观地观察出脑卒中发病率高的人群分布，经过分析可知：脑卒中患病人群中男性多于女性；在脑卒中患病人群中，农民、工人、退休人员所占的比例很大；41-80岁和80岁以上人群是脑卒中发病率高的人群，且18岁以下和18-40岁的人群脑卒中发病率有增长迹象。

其次，脑卒中的诱发已经被证实与环境因素（包括气压、温度和相对湿度）之间有密切的关系。通过数据标准化处理作出2007—2010年各月气压、温度、相对湿度与脑卒中发病率的表格，然后运用SPSS统计分析软件的回归分析和聚类分析等知识，对脑卒中发病率与气压、温度、相对湿度的关系依次建立单因素相关性分析模型、多重线性回归模型、聚类分析模型三个模型，得出脑卒中发病率是多个环境因素相互作用的结果；建立了数学模型依次进行分析，得到在低温、高压气象条件下出血性脑卒中发生概率较大，而在高温、低压、高湿度气象条件下缺血性脑卒中发生概率较大，温度为脑出血危险因素。

最后，结合前面的统计分析，研究如何对脑卒中发病进行干预。根据有关脑卒中高危人群的重要特征和指标，进一步建立模糊评价模型进行统计分析；然后分男女各选取11个影响高危人群的关键指标进行模糊评价，依据结果采取相应的降压、降糖、加强锻炼等干预措施，干预后再次进行模糊评价，对干预效果进行判断，得出干预是有效的。

本文研究结果表明，从气象学角度和生活习惯、饮食、医药、保健等角度对预防脑卒中的发生是很有成效的。在高温、低压、高湿度气象条件下，我们应该要多喝水，减少在高温环境下作业；不论是中老年人还是青年人，脑卒中的各种影响因素中最关键的是高血压；吸烟、嗜酒会对身体多个方面造成影响；为了降低高血脂、肥胖等危险因素的发生应该保持良好的饮食、运动习惯；针对高危人群给予预防指导。

关键词：脑卒中；发病率；环境因素；多重线性回归；干预

Abstract

Also known as stroke, it is suddenly fainted, unconscious. The main symptom of cerebral blood circulation disorder is hemiplegia. The diseases often have sequel and other symptoms, and tend to be younger onset ages, therefore, brain death is a major disease threat to human life and the quality of life. Stroke can be divided into ischemic cerebral apoplexy and hemorrhagic cerebral apoplexy. Epidemiological investigation showed that some risk factors closely relate to the occurrence of cerebral apoplexy. They are divided into two kinds: one kind is unforeseeable factors, such as age, gender, family history of disease; other is intervention factors, such as occupation, high blood pressure, diabetes. If we explore effective intervention for these factors, the morbidity and mortality of the disease can be reduced. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the environmental factors and find a way to prevent stroke.

Firstly, this paper does some statistical descriptions about the gender, occupation, age and so on. The histogram and pie charts show the high stroke population. In conclusion, the number of men is more than that of women in stroke population. Peasants, workers and retirees account for a large proportion in stroke population. The high incidence of cerebral apoplexy patients are 41-80 years old and over 80 years old people. What’s more, the stroke incidence of younger people is on the growth.

Secondly, there is a close relationship between stroke and environmental factors (including pressure, temperature and relative humidity). We design forms about pressure, temperature, relative humidity, and the incidence of stroke monthly from 2007 to 2011. Then we use the SPSS statistical analysis software to analyze them from different perspectives. There are ordinal single factor correlation analysis model, the multiple linear regression model and clustering analysis model in the exploration. The descriptive analysis concluded that the stroke incidence is not from a single factor. Hemorrhagic stroke occurs in low temperature, high pressure weather conditions, while ischemic stroke occurs in high temperature, low pressure, high humidity weather conditions. Temperature is a risk factor for cerebral hemorrhage.

Finally, we research the stroke intervention combined with former statistical analysis. According to the important characteristic about the relevant people, we choose 11 points from men and women to proceed fuzzy evaluation. On the basis of the results, we take appropriate step-down, hypoglycemic, strengthening exercise interventions. Then we proceed fuzzy evaluation again after intervention. As a result, the intervention is effective.

In this paper, we find effective strategies in stroke intervention conclude weather , lifestyle, food, medicine and health care. In the high temperature, low pressure and high humidity, people had better drink more water, and avoid high temperature working. Whether old or young, high blood pressure is the first risk factor. The blood pressure level is closely related to the type of the disease. The influence of smoking and alcohol involves multiple aspects. Good habits of diet and exercise can reduce the occurrence of hyperlipidemia, obesity and so on. The early prevention is important to reduce the occurrence of stroke.

Key Words：stroke；morbidity；environmental factor；multiple linear regression；intervention

目 录

摘 要 I

Abstract II

第1章 绪论 1

1.1 脑卒中简介 1

1.2 脑卒中发病环境因素浅析 2

第2章 脑卒中发病研究历程 3

2.1 脑卒中发病性别差异研究 3

2.1.1 脑卒中发病性别差异研究方法 3

2.1.2 脑卒中发病性别差异研究结果 3

2.2 脑卒中发病中高血压性患者健康知识及行为研究 4

2.2.1 脑卒中发病中高血压性患者健康知识及行为研究方法 4

2.2.2 脑卒中发病中高血压性患者健康知识及行为研究结果 5

2.3 脑卒中发病中生物标志物研究 5

2.3.1 脑卒中发病中生物标志物研究的重要意义 5

2.3.2 脑卒中发病中生物标志物研究的现状 6

第3章 脑卒中发病环境因素分析 7

3.1 脑卒中发病人群统计描述 7

3.1.1 脑卒中发病人群性别比例 7

3.1.2 脑卒中发病人群各职业比例 8

3.1.3 脑卒中发病人群各年龄比例 9

3.2 建立数学模型研究脑卒中发病率与环境因素的关系 11

3.2.1 模型假设 11

3.2.2 符号说明 11

3.2.3 模型一：单因素相关性分析 12

3.2.4 模型二：多重线性回归分析 12

3.2.5 模型三：聚类分析 17

3.3 模型评价与改进 21

3.3.1 模型优点 21

3.3.2 模型缺点 21

3.3.3模型优化 22

第4章 脑卒中发病干预 23

4.1 脑卒中高危人群的重要特征和指标 23

4.2 建立模糊评价模型分析控制效果 23

4.2.1 男性脑卒中干预模糊评价 23

4.2.2 女性脑卒中干预模糊评价 26

4.3 模型评价与改进 28

4.3.1 模型优点 28

4.3.2 模型缺点 28

4.3.3 模型改进 29

4.4 脑卒中高危人群发病干预 29

第5章 总结与展望 31

5.1 总结 31

5.2 展望 32