论文总字数：26858字

摘 要

本文在对黑龙江省的农业经济影响因素分析中首先分析主要因素，包括：自然条件、人工条件以及技术支持三方面，得到了农业机械化对农业经济的影响较大的结论，接着基于近16年内黑龙江省农用机械使用情况以及农业产值发展进行分析找出相关关系，建立计量经济模型，发现需要主要推广的农用机械，结合以往文献提出具有创新型的推广建议。本课题的数据选取分为两方面：

一、 首先对黑龙江省总影响因素（受灾面积、农业从业人员、农业机械总动力）的2000-2015年数据进行初步分析得到农机方面对农业经济影响较显著的结论；二、接着针对农机部分选取了2000-2015年黑龙江省的农业总产值与几大主要农用机型使用情况（数量）的数据。

第一大部分利用Eviews软件先对总影响因素数据进行相关性分析，然后推测出计量经济模型，最后使用OLS方法估计模型参数，进而得到黑龙江省的农业经济主要影响因素中农机方面影响较大的结论。

第二大部分利用农机部分数据进行详细的分析:建立模型、检验模型以及得出最终计量经济模型，进而筛选出主要农机中与农业产值密切联系的若干种农机作为主要推广的农用机型。

最后一部分结合对农机推广、农机合作社以及农机培训等的相关参考进行创新型措施建议，找出更加配合实际情况及细节的具体操作。

关键词： 农业经济 农业机械化 农机推广 黑龙江省

Analysis of influencing factors of agricultural economy in heilongjiang province

Abstract

This paper firstly analyzes the main factors in the analysis of agricultural economic influencing factors in heilongjiang province,including: natural conditions, artificial conditions and technical support.Then, based on the use of agricultural machinery and the development of agricultural output value in heilongjiang province in the past 16 years, the correlation was found through analysis, and establish the econometric model to find agricultural machinery that needs to be mainly promoted,and combined with the previous literature to put forward innovative promotion recommendation.Data selection of this topic is divided into two aspects: Firstly, the data of total influencing factors (affected area, agricultural workers, total power of agricultural machinery) in heilongjiang province from 2000 to 2015 were preliminarily analyzed to conclude that agricultural machinery has significant influence on agricultural economy.Secondly, data on the total agricultural output value of heilongjiang province and the use (quantity) of agricultural machinery from 2000 to 2015 were selected for agricultural machinery.

In the first part, Eviews software is used to carry out correlation analysis on the data of the total influencing factors, and then the econometric model is inferred. Finally, OLS method is used to estimate the model parameters, so as to obtain the conclusion that agricultural machinery has great influence on the main influencing factors of agricultural economy in heilongjiang province.

The second part, Uses the data of agricultural machinery to make detailed analysis, establish model, test model and get the final econometric model, and then selects several agricultural machinery closely related to agricultural output value as the main agricultural models for promotion.

In the last part, combined with relevant references, innovative measures and Suggestions are made for agricultural machinery promotion, agricultural machinery cooperatives and agricultural machinery training, etc., so as to find out specific operations that better match the details and provide feasible Suggestions for leaders of agricultural machinery promotion.

Key Words: agricultural economy;agricultural mechanization ;

agricultural machinery promotion;heilongjiang province

目 录

摘要…………………………………………………………………………………I

ABSTRACT………………………………………………………………………II

第一章 引言………………………………………………………………………1

1.1 影响农业经济的国内外研究现状 ………………………………………2

1.2 研究农业机械化对农业经济影响的目的和意义 ………………………3

1.3 研究思路和技术方法 ……………………………………………………3

第二章 农业经济影响因素分析 ……………………………………………4

2.1 数据选取 …………………………………………………………………4

2.1.1数据展示………………………………………………………………4

2.2 模型建立 …………………………………………………………………5

2.2.1 图形分析 ……………………………………………………………5

2.2.2 设定模型 ……………………………………………………………5

2.3 模型估计……………………………………………………………………5

2.4 模型解释……………………………………………………………………5

第三章 农业机械化概述 ………………………………………………………6

3.1 农业机械化的定义…………………………………………………………6

3.2 农业机械化发展现状………………………………………………………6

3.2.1 黑龙江农业信息………………………………………………………6

3.2.2 黑龙江农机信息………………………………………………………6

第四章 农业机械化分析 ………………………………………………………7

4.1 数据选取及解释……………………………………………………………7

4.1.1 数据解释 ………………………………………………………………7

4.1.2 数据来源及展示 ………………………………………………………8

4.2 模型建立……………………………………………………………………9

4.2.1图形分析 ………………………………………………………………9

4.2.2设定模型………………………………………………………………11

4.3 模型估计 …………………………………………………………………11

4.3.1 OLS方法………………………………………………………………11

4.3.2 模型解释……………………………………………………………11

4.3.3 对多重共线性的修正………………………………………………12

4.4 模型检验…………………………………………………………………14

4.4.1 异方差检验…………………………………………………………14

4.4.2 平稳性检验…………………………………………………………16

4.4.3 自相关检验…………………………………………………………16

4.5 结果分析…………………………………………………………………17

4.5.1 模型确定……………………………………………………………17

4.5.2 经济学解释…………………………………………………………17

4.6 结论阐述…………………………………………………………………17

结语……………………………………………………………………………18

参考文献………………………………………………………………………19

附录……………………………………………………………………………20

致谢……………………………………………………………………………27

1. 引言

1.1 影响农业经济的国内外研究现状

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