论文总字数：31701字

摘 要

二氧化碳等温室气体的排放引发的诸多环境问题，已经逐渐成为世界关注的焦点。各国政府已在碳排放控制方面达成了共识，作为当今世界碳排放量第一大国，我国已经做出到2020年碳排放强度相对2005年降低40%-50%的承诺，并将其单位GDP的二氧化碳排放量当作GDP增长的约束性指标。实现目标的关键之一是实现低碳经济转型。

本文基于我国30省（西藏、香港、澳门、台湾除外）的1996-2016年的面板数据，对碳排放对经济增长影响以及细分产业产生的碳排放进行分析。首先，利用面板聚类分析将30省划分3个区域。再者，基于个体固定效应面板回归模型，本文对碳排放对经济增长的影响进行实证。结果表明碳排放对各区域经济增长呈不同的非负向关系：“区域1最高，区域2次之，区域3无关”。其次，基于IO-SDA模型从生产结构端、需求端将碳排放变化分解至29个产业，发现中西部大多数省份正处于东部发达省份已经经历过的低碳经济转型期，进口高碳排放强度原料及产品，并出口生产过程伴随低碳排放且高附加值的商品是有效抑制这些省份重工业碳排放的手段。最后，本文针对以上三区域提出低碳经济发展建议。

关键词：碳排放 碳排放强度 经济发展 面板数据 IO-SDA 方法

Abstract

The emission of carbon dioxide and other green gases has caused quantities of environmental problems ,which becomes the concerns all over the world. Under these circumstances, the governments from different nations have reached an agreement on the control of carbon dioxide. China, as the biggest nation in the emission of carbon dioxide, has made the commitment that China will lower the carbon intensity to the range from 40% to 50% comparing to that in 2005 before 2020,and we will set the amount of carbon dioxide emission per GDP as the obligatory target to the growth of GDP. One of the critical measures to realize this goal is fulfilling the transition of low-carbon economy.

In this article, based on panel data ranging from 1996 to 2016 of all provinces and cities in China except Tibet, Macao and Taiwan, the impact of carbon emission on economy development and carbon dioxide emission caused by specific industries are analyzed. First, a panel cluster analysis is carried to divide 30 provinces and cities into 3 areas. Second, on the basis of individual fixation effect model analysis, the impact of carbon dioxide emission on the development of economy is analyzed. The results indicate that impacts of carbon dioxide emission on the economy in 3 areas are differently non-negative correlations:"Area 1: highest positive correlation, Area 2: lower positive correlation, Area: non-significant correlation". Third, based on IO-SDA model, carbon dioxide emission is decomposed into 29 industries merged from 43 industries in Input-Output list, and it is shown that the majority of provinces and cities in middle and west of China are undergoing a phase which most of developed eastern China provinces have experienced before: the period of transition to low-carbon economy. Moreover, the result shows that some regions can effectively avoid carbon emission in heavy-manufacturing industry through importing carbon-intensive products while exporting less carbon-intensive but higher-value-added product. Finally, some suggestions on low carbon economy development are specially made for the 3 areas.

Keywords: carbon emission, carbon dioxide emission intensity, development in economy, panel data, IO-SDA method

目录

第一章 引言 1

1.1选题背景及意义 1

1.2国内外研究现状 1

1.2.1碳排放与经济增长相关研究 1

1.2.2产业结构对碳排放的影响 3

1.3研究思路及结构分析 3

1.4创新之处 4

1.5不足之处 4

第二章 碳排放核算及各区域划分 6

2.1我国能源消耗的现状 6

2.2碳排放的计算 6

2.3基于面板数据系统聚类法的区域划分 7

2.3.1面板数据系统聚类法 7

2.3.2区域划分指标的选择及分类结果 8

2.4各省节能减排及低碳经济发展情况 9

第三章、碳排放对经济增长影响的实证检验：面板模型 12

3.1研究设计 12

3.1.1变量选择 12

3.1.2模型设定 13

3.2时间序列的检验 13

3.2.1面板数据的单位根检验 13

3.2.2面板数据协整检验 16

3.3面板模型的选择 17

3.4面板回归结果 18

第四章、产业结构及终端需求对碳排放影响——基于IO-SDA分析 22

4.1方法和数据 22

4.1.1 计算产业结构对碳排放的影响 24

4.2产业结构变化对地区碳排放的影响 26

4.2.1分行业碳排放变化分析 26

4.2.2生产结构的改变对地区碳排放增长的影响 27

4.2.3终端需求变化对地区碳排放的影响 29

第五章、结论 32

参考文献 34

附录 36

致 谢 42

第一章 引言

1.1选题背景及意义

二氧化碳作为引起全球变暖的主要温室气体之一，一直以来是国际关注的焦点，各国政府已在碳排放控制方面达成了共识，1997年84个国家签订了《京都协定书》旨在将大气中温室气体含量稳定在一个适当的水平。

中国正处于工业化、城市化进程的关键时期，能源消耗带来的碳排放问题受到国内外人士的重点关注。作为当今世界碳排放量第一大国，我国已经做出到2020年碳排放强度相对2005年降低40%-50%，同时到2030年下降60%-65%并且碳排放量达到峰值的承诺。

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