论文总字数：20471字

摘 要

居民储蓄，是指人们把尚未花费的金钱存入银行等金融机构。绝大多数的金融机构都将储蓄视为非常关键的资金源头。储蓄业务的发展，在趋势上有助于促进经济的协整，笼聚建设所需要的资金，调节货币的正常流通，稳固市场物价平衡。自从我国改革开放至今，经济建设有了较大水平的发展，居民的收入有了明显的提升，银行储蓄也是快速增加，占GDP半数以上，在国民经济中拥有非常关键的地位。最近几年，由于我国较高的储蓄率的原因，也导致了投资与消费不足的问题，据统计，现在我国每年平均8%左右的GDP增速，而资本收益率才0.8%，远远小于经济的平均增长速率。由此可知，我国现阶段的状况是，资本存量和储蓄率偏高，而内需消费较低。储蓄主要受到收入的影响，同时还间接受到各种经济形式的影响。因此，研究居民储蓄的变化情况，就可以更有效的规划宏观经济蓝图和政策，长期维持储蓄合理稳定，就能推动经济健康有序的发展。

本文首先对影响我国储蓄的因素进行理论上的分析，理论上讲，收入是消费的源头，是关键的因素。而且，可支配收入越高，可储蓄存款理论也会越高。比较高的通货膨胀率会导致名义利率的提高，利率提高的话，人们可以得到更多利息，大家就会把钱存入银行之中，这样会导致交易市场上的货币变少，通货膨胀率就会变低，所以，利率的提高促进了居民储蓄存款的增加。消费物价越高，人们用于生活支出的金额也会越高，从而会对降低储蓄。接着对各因素进行数据上的分析，根据经济学模型和经济意义立出居民储蓄与GDP，存款利率，消费物价指数等数据之间的模型，并选择近20年的居民储蓄数据和各影响因素的数据做出时间序列，并用Eviews软件对数据进行分析处理，不断修正模型，最后得到结论。人们的收入与储蓄有很明显的正相关，人们的收入越高，存款也就越多。物价与储蓄是负相关作用。物价的提高，就会造成居民花费支出的增加，在收入不变的时候，储蓄自然就会减少。同时，物价的上涨会导致居民的购买力有所下降，在购买相同消费品之后，剩余能够储蓄的资金就会减少，进行储蓄的意愿也会显著减少。在分析之后，给出相应的政策和建议。

关键词：居民储蓄 GDP 利率 消费价格指数

Abstract

Resident savings refers to the urban and rural residents will spend the rest of the monetary income into the bank or other financial institutions. Savings deposits are an important source of funding for financial credit agencies. The development of the savings business is conducive to promoting the institutional adjustment of the national economy to a certain extent, gathering construction and development funds, stabilizing the market price and regulating the circulation of money. The people's income level has been significantly improved, residents' savings is also rapid growth. In recent years, China's higher savings rate, but also brought about the problem of investment and consumption, according to statistics, in recent years, China's GDP average annual growth rate of about 8%, while China's net profit margin of capital that is 0.9% Far less than the average economic growth rate. It can be seen that China's high capital stock, high savings rate, consumer sentenced to low. Changes in household savings are directly affected by disposable income and are also indirectly affected by various economic forms. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out research and analysis on the main factors influencing the savings of the residents so as to take appropriate measures in the formulation of macroeconomic policies so that the savings rate Maintained at an appropriate normal level.

This paper first analyzes the factors that affect our savings. Moreover, the higher the disposable income, the higher the savings deposit theory. Higher inflation causes higher nominal interest rates and higher interest rates, and people will deposit money into banks, so that the money in circulation will be reduced, thereby reducing inflation, raising interest rates, and getting more interest , will increase inflation. The increase in interest rates contributed to the increase in household savings deposits. The higher the consumer price, which would reduce the savings. Then, the empirical analysis of each factor, deposit interest rates, consumer price index and other factors between the factors, and select nearly 20 years of household savings data and the impact Factor data to make time series, and use Eviews software to analyze and process the data, and constantly revised the model, and finally concluded that the income level and household savings have a positive correlation, the higher the income level, the higher the savings. The impact of interest rates on household savings is very weak, but interest rates have a decisive role in the change in savings structure. Price levels are negatively related to household savings. Increased price levels lead to an increase in consumer spending, savings will naturally be reduced under certain income conditions. At the same time, the willingness to save money and the willingness to make savings will be significantly reduced. And give the corresponding policy recommendations.

Keywords: household savings, GDP, deposit, interest rate, price index

目 录

摘要…………………………………………………………………………………I

ABSTRACT………………………………………………………………………II

第一章 引言………………………………………………………………………1

1.1研究目的和意义……………………………………………………………2

1.2研究相关背景………………………………………………………………7

1.2.1国内相关研究…………………………………………………………2

1.2.2国外相关研究…………………………………………………………2

1.3本文的研究方法……………………………………………………………8

第二章 理论分析……………………………………………………………9

2.1 基本概念……………………………………………………………………9

2.2 对储蓄的影响………………………………………………………………9

第三章 影响我国居民储蓄的因素及分析……………………………9

3.1变量定义与数据来源………………………………………………………9

3.1.1变量选取…………………………………………………………………2

3.1.2数据来源………………………………………………………………2

3.2实证分析步骤………………………………………………………………9

3.2.1建立计量经济学模型……………………………………………………2

3.2.2模型检验………………………………………………………………2

3.2.3模型修正………………………………………………………………2

3.3结论…………………………………………………………………………9

第四章 政策与建议…………………………………………………………9

结语………………………………………………………………………………104

参考文献…………………………………………………………………………104

附录………………………………………………………………………………106

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