论文总字数：24870字

摘 要

在近几十年的社会实践中，事实证明，盲目执行的结果往往没有制定一个好的决策模型有目标地执行的效果好。

节能减排方式的成效受原材料成本、能源使用率以及能源类型等多种因素的影响，与此同时不同节能减排方式下产生的收益大小及对环境造成的后果也是不尽相同的。节能减排方式的调整属于典型的风险型决策，贝叶斯决策理论是处理风险型决策的经典理论。

本文针对近年来节能减排决策方式的难以抉择问题，将贝叶斯理论引入节能减排方式决策中，以最小风险、最小错误率的贝叶斯决策模型为核心，将贝叶斯理论和博弈论相结合，通过计算得到不同决策模型下的低碳、中碳、高碳的排放量强度等级来量化节能减排不同决策方式的成效，为节能减排的决策者提供易于比较的数学参考，找到节能减排更具成效的决策方式，进而全面提高节能减排水平。

同时,本课题研究视角新颖，构建政府、企业、银行、消费者等的不同利益方的一般博弈与多阶段动态演化博弈模型，探究它们之间相互影响，相互依托的效用函数，综合运用金融、贝叶斯理论、贝叶斯网络与博弈论等多学科知识进行机制设计，力图理论和实践相结合，提出新颖实用的对策建议，探究政策建议与现实生活中可操作性与优劣是否。

关键词：节能减排，最小风险贝叶斯决策，最小错误率贝叶斯决策，博弈论，动态博弈，效益函数

Abstract

In recent decades, social practice, it turns out, the results are often not blindly execute the decision to develop a good model has good effect targeted execution.

  The effectiveness of the energy saving mode is affected by many factors, raw material costs, energy usage, and energy types, income at the same time the size of the consequences arising under different energy conservation methods and on the environment is not the same. Adjust the energy saving mode is a typical risk decision making, Bayesian decision theory is the classical theory of decision-making process under risk.

  In this paper, the recent energy conservation decision-making difficult choices problem, Bayesian decision theory into energy saving mode in order to minimize risk, the minimum error rate Bayesian decision model as the core, the Bayesian theory and game On combining different decision by calculation model of a low-carbon, medium carbon, high carbon emissions intensity level to quantify the energy saving effectiveness of different decision-making, providing easy-to-compare mathematical reference for energy saving policy makers, find more effective energy conservation decision-making, thereby improving overall level of energy saving. At the same time new research perspective, to build the government, enterprises, banks, consumers and other general game and multi-stage dynamic evolution of different stakeholders game model to explore the interaction between them, relying on each other's utility function, the integrated use of financial, shellfish Yates theory, Bayesian networks and game theory and other disciplines of knowledge of mechanism design, seeks to combine theory and practice, put forward innovative and practical suggestions, explore policy proposals and in real life and the merits of whether the operability.

Keywords: energy conservation, minimum risk Bayes decision, minimum error rate Bayesian decision theory, dynamic game, benefit function

目录

节能减排的贝叶斯决策模型研究 I

摘 要 I

Abstract I

第一章 引言 1

1.1 研究的目的及意义 1

1.2 研究相关背景 2

1.2.1 国外相关研究回顾 2

1.2.2 国内相关研究回顾 2

1.3 本文的研究方法及创新点 3

第二章 贝叶斯决策模型概述 3

2.1 模型概述 4

2.1.1 基于最小错误率的贝叶斯决策 4

2.1.2基于最小风险的贝叶斯决策 5

2.2数据样本收集与选取 6

2.3模型函数建立 7

第三章 四方博弈详述 12

3.1 整体模型图形与博弈树的建立 12

3.2 中国现状分析 15

3.3市场形态下只存在企业的情况 16

3.3.1不同市场上企业进行技术改造的的博弈模型分析 16

3.4企业与消费者的双方博弈 17

3.4.1 基本假设 18

3.4.2 低碳产品交易的博弈过程分析 19

3.4.3 消费者博弈模型求解 19

3.4.4 生产商博弈模型求解 20

3.4.5重复交易博弈分析 20

3.4.6结论分析 20

3.5政府与企业之间的双方博弈 21

3.6 四方博弈 21

第四章 结论与建议 23

4.1对于政府 23

4.2对于企业 23

4.3对于银行 24

4.4对于消费者 25

参考文献 25

致谢： 26

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