论文总字数：19632字

摘 要

运用VAR模型对于节能减排的影响因素进行分析。首先在参考文献的基础上，提出并分析影响能源排放污染的因素。本文从以下两个角度分析；①当下电力市场的冲突。②治理问题上政府政策的导向性。不同能源的选取上笔者采用风力发电，火力发电，水力发电进行比较。

首先，本文采用VAR为研究工具，对于影响环境指数的发电厂的多种因素进行分析。在参考文献的基础上提出并分析了影响污染指数的各种因素。建立发电方式之间相互影响冲击的VAR模型。在传统定义的印象下将发电情况大致分为污染能耗高（火电）以及环保节能（其他发电方式），首先对于两种方式的年生产电量进行分析，考察两者之间在国家当下发展环境下的比重以及考察两者之间的脉冲分析，确定两者之间数据上的内在联系，结果显示：两中发电量之间确实存在数值上的联系。对两个数据建立VAR模型，讨论相互之间的关系，并讨论冲击，发现延迟一阶的环保型发电方式和火力发电方式具有数值上的联系。

其次，考察污染的治理问题上，着重考虑政府的决策，将其转化为虚拟变量添加进函数，拟合结果显著，分析出政策的力度问题。在考察到政府出台政策的力度问题上，分析国家今后对于环保型发电方式的投入，政策的扶持，并对于企业及国家在今后的电力市场提出个人意见。

关键词：节能减排 发电 VAR模型 虚拟变量

Abstract

The influencing factors of energy saving and emission reduction by VAR model are analyzed. Firstly, based on the references, the factors that affect the pollution of energy are put forward and analyzed. This paper analyzes from the following two perspectives:① The conflict of the electricity market at present. ② The guidance of government policy on governance issues. The author uses wind power, thermal power, and Hydropower to compare the selection of different energy sources.

Firstly, the paper uses VAR as the research tool, and analyzes many factors of the power plant which influence the environmental index. Based on the references, the factors affecting the pollution index were proposed and analyzed.. The VAR model of the impact of the mutual impact on the power generation is established.. Under the impression of the traditional definition of will power generation is divided into high energy consumption and pollution (thermal power) and environmental protection and energy saving (produce), first of all, the two ways of annual production of electricity analysis. The effects of between the two in the present state of the environment for the development of the proportion of and visits between the two pulse analysis, determine the data on the intrinsic link between the two. The results showed that the numerical relationship exist between the two generation. The two data are established VAR model, the relationship between each other, and the impact of the first order of environmental protection and thermal power generation mode has a numerical connection.

Secondly, the problem of pollution control is studied, and the decision of the government is considered, which is transformed into the added function of the virtual variables, and the fitting results are obvious, and the problem of the policy is analyzed.. In the study to the government the introduction of the strength of policy issues, countries in the future for environmentally friendly power generation mode of investment analysis, policy support, and for enterprises and countries in the future electricity market puts forward personal opinions.

Keywords: energy saving, emission reduction, power generation, VAR model, virtual variables

目录

摘要： I

Abstract II

第一章：引言 1

1.1 研究目的及意义 1

1.2 研究相关背景 2

1.3论文的整体结构框架 4

第二章 理论模型概述，样本选取以及变量定义 5

2.1 理论模型概述 5

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