摘 要

极地具有丰富的海洋石油资源，在海洋油气的开发中，海底管道的运行状况直接关系到海上油气田的安全。因此，本文分析管道风险，建立极地海底管道定量风险评价系统以保证管道的正常工作对极地海洋石油开发有着重要的意义 。

本文主要研究了极地能源开发现状及前景，介绍了目前极地海底管道所面临的问题；描述了国内外对海底管线风险评价技术进展。同时，给出极地海底管道风险定义，研究了极地海底管道风险评价体系，描述风险评价流程。而后运用故障模式、影响分析（FMEA）对导致极地海底管道失效的影响因素进行系统分析，列出了极地海底管道FMEA表。在此基础上利用故障树分析法，建立了较为完整的极地海底管道失效故障树，求出了故障树的最小割集，总结了海底管道失效的主要影响因素，基于故障树运用贝叶斯理论，给出基本事件故障概率表，推算出了极地管道失效概率。最后结合前四章内容，建立了定量风险评价体系，对极地海底管道进行风险评价，并给出了相关管理意见。

研究结果表明：引起极地海底管道失效的主要影响因素有：腐蚀，极地恶劣环境及航道作业造成的第三方破坏。依据参考文献数据计算所得极地海底管道失效概率高于拟定的可接受管道失效概率，故本文给出了相关意见以缓解失效风险。

本文的特色：利用了贝叶斯网络模型的优势，弥补了故障树模型中难以描述的事件状态多态性和逻辑关系非确定性的劣势，有效提高了极地输油海底管道安全失效定量分析的准确性。

关键词：极地海底管道；故障模式、影响分析；故障树分析；贝叶斯网络；定量风险评价

Abstract

Polar has a wealth of offshore petroleum resources in the offshore oil and gas development, the health of the subsea pipeline directly related to the safety of offshore oil and gas fields. Therefore, this paper analyzes the risk of pipeline, the establishment of polar submarine pipeline quantitative risk assessment system to ensure the normal work of the pipeline on the polar ocean oil development is of great significance.

This paper mainly studies the present situation and prospects of polar energy development, introduces the problems faced by polar submarine pipelines, and describes the progress of submarine pipeline risk assessment technology at home and abroad. At the same time, the risk definition of polar submarine pipeline is given, and the risk assessment system of polar submarine pipeline is studied, and the risk evaluation process is described. (FMEA) is used to analyze the influencing factors of the failure of the polar submarine pipeline, and the FMEA table of the polar submarine pipeline is listed. On the basis of this, the fault tree analysis method is used to establish a complete faulty fault tree of the submarine pipeline, and the minimum cutting set of the fault tree is obtained. The main influencing factors of the failure of the submarine pipeline are summarized. Based on the Bayesian theory , The basic event failure probability table is given, and the probability of failure of the polar pipeline is deduced. Finally, combined with the first four chapters, the establishment of a quantitative risk assessment system, the risk of polar submarine pipeline assessment, and gives the relevant management advice.

The results show that the main factors that cause the failure of the polar submarine pipeline are: corrosion, polar harsh environment and third - party damage caused by channel operation. According to the reference data, the probability of failure of the submarine pipeline is higher than that of the proposed acceptable pipeline failure probability. Therefore, the relevant opinions are given to alleviate the risk of failure.

The characteristics of this paper are based on the advantages of the Bayesian network model, which makes up for the unsatisfactory event state polymorphism and the uncertainty of the logical relationship in the fault tree model, and effectively improves the quantitative analysis of the safety failure of the submarine pipeline accuracy.

Key words: polar submarine pipeline; failure mode, impact analysis; fault tree analysis; Bayesian network; quantitative risk assessment