摘 要

对于管道风险评价技术这一技术，它首先在国外发展起来，至今已有四十几年。虽然它引入到我国只有短短十几年时间,却已经引起了广泛关注。对于陆上油气长输管道，这个技术已经得到了具体应用并取得了一定的理论成果，但对于在海洋油气田开发中起重要作用的海底管道上的应用，以及目前全世界都大力发展的极地海底输油管道技术方面则相对落后,到目前为止没有完善的评价技术。所以，此次论文研究的主要任务就是研究极地海底油气管道系统的实际状况和在这个特定环境下的管道风险评价技术。

本文借用国外的管道风险评价技术的基本思想以及处理方法，另外结合我国海底输油管道设计、施工以及运行的实际状况，依照我国海底油气管道技术行业标准和规范，通过对管线所经海域环境诱发管道发生事故的可能性进行分析，建立起海底油气管道系统失效故障树，然后对故障树进行定性和定量分析，利用专家判断和模糊评价相结合的方法得到各基本事件的发生概率和顶事件的发生概率,在这个基础上，再对各基本事件进行了最小割集分析,以便进一步确定极地输油管道系统的薄弱环节。另外，此次论文要着重强调的是极地环境的影响因素，因此，在故障树中，相对于寻常的海底管道，我们需要将极地环境影响因素考虑在内。

通过对故障树进行分析和对管道风险进行辨识，建立极地海底油气管道系统风险评价的指标体系，另外在一级指标中增加了自然环境影响指标，这是为了突出显示极地海洋环境的特殊性给输油管道安全带来的影响。因为极地海底管道所处环境的特殊性,对其观测和测量都有很大的难度，其结果必然带有比陆上管道更大的模糊性和不确定性，加上极地海底管道发展较晚，各类统计数据相当缺乏，更不能形成规律，因此本文采用指标评分法与模糊数学相结合的模糊评价方法来进行评价，以便使评价结果更科学，更符合客观实际，更具说服力。

关键词：极地海底油气管道 风险评价 故障树定性分析 定量分析 模糊数

指标评价体系

Abstract

For the pipeline risk assessment technology of this technology, it first developed in some foreign countries, it has been forty years. Although it is introduced into our country only a short period of ten years, it has aroused wide attention. This technology has been in the onshore oil and gas long distance pipeline has been specific applications and has made certain achievements in the theory, but to play an important role of the submarine pipelines used in the offshore oil and gas development, and at present, the whole world is to vigorously develop the polar seabed pipeline is relatively backward, so far there is no perfect evaluation techniques. Therefore, the main task of this paper is to study the actual situation of the polar seabed oil and gas pipeline system and the pipeline risk assessment technology in this particular environment.

The basic idea of this paper from the pipeline risk assessment of foreign technology and processing methods, and combined with the actual situation of China's submarine pipeline design, construction and operation, in accordance with the technology industry of our country seabed oil and gas pipeline standards and norms, through the analysis of the possibility of accidents in pipeline environment induced by pipeline, to establish fault tree failure of submarine oil and gas pipeline system, then the qualitative and quantitative analysis of fault tree, judgment method and fuzzy evaluation of the basic events and the probability of the top event probability of occurrence by experts, on the basis of the basic events of the minimum cut set analysis, in order to further determine the weak link polar pipeline system. In addition, the paper should focus on the impact of the polar environment factors, therefore, in the fault tree, with respect to the unusual submarine pipeline, we need to take into account the polar environment factors.

Through the fault tree analysis and identification of pipeline risk, the establishment of the polar seabed oil and gas pipeline system risk assessment index system and also in the first grade indexes increased natural environment influence factor, which is in order to highlight the particularity of the polar marine environment to oil tube road safety and effect. Because of the particularity of the environment of polar seabed pipeline, the observations and measurements have great difficulty, the inevitable result with fuzzy and uncertain than onshore pipeline greater, and the late development of polar seabed pipeline, rather the lack of all kinds of statistical data, could not be more formation rules. Therefore, the index evaluation method and the fuzzy mathematics combining the fuzzy evaluation method to evaluate in order to make the evaluation result more scientific, more in line with the objective reality, more convincing.

Key words: polar seabed oil and gas pipeline risk assessment fault tree qualitative analysis quantitative analysis fuzzy evaluation Index evaluation system

目录

第1章 绪论.................................................................................................................................1

1.1 研究背景............................................................................................................................1

1.2 管道风险评价技术国内外研究现状................................................................................1

1.3 本文主要研究内容............................................................................................................2

第2章 管道风险评价技术.........................................................................................................3

2.1 管道风险评价常用的理论方法........................................................................................3

2.2 本文采用的风险评价模型................................................................................................3

第3章 海底油气管道系统的故障树分析.................................................................................5

3.1 故障树分析方法................................................................................................................5

3.2 故障树分析的步骤............................................................................................................5

3.3 海底油气管道系统故障树的建立....................................................................................5

3.4 海底油气管道系统故障树的定性分析............................................................................10

3.4.1 最小割集.....................................................................................................................10

3.4.2 主要影响因素.............................................................................................................10