摘 要

城市基础设施产业化已经成为我国投融资体制改革的趋势之一，PPP模式发挥了资金筹集和管理方面的优势，明显提高了城市基础设施经营的效率。作为PPP模式的核心条款之一，特许经营期的确定是公共部门和私营部门共同关注的焦点，特许经营期的决策直接影响到公私双方的利益。

本文通过归纳国内外学者对城市基础设施PPP项目特许经营期的研究成果，分析出影响特许经营期的各种因素，归纳了常用的三种确定特许经营期的方法，并以NPV法为基础建立了确定合理特许经营期可行域的数学模型，结合社会资本方的资金回收与政府的财政承受能力，从动态分析的角度确立了临界t值，并以某地铁项目为例进行实证分析，验证了此法的合理性与可行性，并对其进行风险分析，从而为决策方提供一定依据。

关键词：PPP模式；城市基础设施；特许经营期

A Study on the Determination of PPP

Model Based Urban Infrastructure Concession

Abstract

The industrialization of urban infrastructure has been one of the tendencies of China’s reform of investment and financing. The PPP model has apparently improved the efficiency of the operation of urban infrastructure with the advantages of the fund financing and management. As one of the key items of the PPP model,the determination of the concession period becomes the common focus for both public sector and private sector，its decision can cause direct influences to both sectors.

This study concludes the determination of PPP model based urban infrastructure concession research results of domestic and foreign scholars,then concludes three frequently-used method to determine the concession period by means of analyzing the influencing factors of it,establishes the mathematical model based on NPV method ,combines the capital recovery of the social capital and financial endurance capacity of government to determine a critical “t” by means of dynamic analysis.Then take the example of a certain metro project to verify the feasibility and rationality of this method,and makes risk analysis to provide certain reference for decision makers.

Key Words: PPP model;urban infrastructure;concession period

目录

摘要.................................................................................................................................................I

Abstract...........................................................................................................................................II

第1章 绪论...................................................................................................................................1

1.1 选题背景..........................................................................................................................1

1.2 国内外研究现状..............................................................................................................1

1.2.1 国外研究现状.........................................................................................................1

1.2.2 国内研究现状.........................................................................................................2

1.2.3 国内外研究现状比较分析.....................................................................................4

1.3 论文研究方法..................................................................................................................5

1.4 论文技术路线与主要内容..............................................................................................5

1.4.1 论文的技术路线.....................................................................................................5

1.4.2 论文的主要内容.....................................................................................................6

第2章 城市基础设施PPP项目特许经营期理论基础..............................................................7

2.1 城市基础设施的含义和特征..........................................................................................7

2.1.1 城市基础设施的含义.............................................................................................7

2.1.2 城市基础设施的特征.............................................................................................7

2.2 城市基础设施PPP模式及特许经营期理论.................................................................8

2.2.1 PPP模式的理论.....................................................................................................8

2.2.2 特许经营期的理论.................................................................................................9

2.3 城市基础设施PPP项目特许经营期风险分析.............................................................10

2.4 城市基础设施PPP项目特许经营期实例分析.............................................................11

第3章 PPP项目特许经营期模型的构建研究........................................................13 3.1 特许经营期影响因素分析..............................................................................................13

3.2 PPP项目特许经营期应用净现值法的要点.................................................................14

3.2.1 基准收益率的确定..................................................................................................14

3.2.2 特许经营协议约定的条款......................................................................................14

3.3 城市基础设施PPP项目的净现值法模型构建............................................................15

3.3.1 资本回收模型构建.................................................................................................15

3.3.2 财政承受能力模型构建.........................................................................................15

3.3.3 合理t值的确定......................................................................................................15

3.4 动态分析........................................................................................................................16

第4章 实证分析.......................................................................................................................17

4.1 项目概况........................................................................................................................17