摘 要

近年来，随着国内城市化的进程不断加快，城市常住人口越来越多，给城市的轨道交通带来巨大压力，地铁作为一种地下交通方式，能在不影响地面交通的情况下开发地下空间，具有不易拥堵，效率高等优点，因此各大城市都在不断进行地铁建设，但在地铁车站深基坑施工过程中，由于地下环境多变，施工条件复杂等原因，存在较多的风险因素，每年都会由于各种风险因素引起基坑坍塌，土方滑移，坑底隆起等施工安全事故，造成巨大人员伤亡和财产损失。本文就地铁深基坑施工安全风险展开实证分析，具有重要的理论和实际意义。

本文利用4M1E原则对地铁深基坑施工过程中可能发生的安全风险因素进行系统识别和分解，确定深基坑施工安全风险指标体系；基于集对理论能处理确定性与不确定性关系的特点，选择集对理论作为风险评价方法，通过建立风险指标因素与评价等级之间的联系度确定风险等级。共完成了如下工作：

本文首先对地铁深基坑施工安全风险、有关集对理论的国内外研究现状以及集对理论、层次分析法等理论的基本内容展开论述；比较国内外关于地铁深基坑施工安全风险评价的研究现状和侧重点，指出这些研究中的风险评价方法难以全面利用和反映信息；比较国内外集对理论的应用范围，并基于地铁深基坑施工安全风险具有不确定性的特点，指出将集对理论应用于地铁深基坑施工安全风险评价的可行性。

然后，本文根据4M1E原则对地铁深基坑施工安全风险因素进行系统整理分析，得到“人员-材料-机械-方法-环境”5个一级风险指标因素和20个二级风险指标因素；并通过层次分析法确定各风险指标因素的权重；接着以集对理论为依据，采用问卷调查的方式获取评价数据，计算风险评价指标和风险等级之间的单因素联系度，结合风险因素指标权重计算一级指标与风险评价等级的总联系度；最后基于最大联系度原则确定各一级风险指标所处的风险评价等级。

最后，本文以成都地铁11号线会龙大道车站的深基坑工程为例，利用本文建立的风险评价模型进行实证分析，结果表明，在本地铁工程项目中，施工机械因素和环境因素处于较大风险等级，应当尽快采取风险应对措施，人员因素、材料因素、施工方法因素属于中等风险，应给予高度重视，在后续风险监控过程中关注其变化。

本文利用集对理论这一风险评价方法，结合地铁深基坑施工安全风险因素的特点，建立了基于集对理论的地铁深基坑施工安全风险评价模型，并以成都地铁11号线会龙大道站为例展开了一定深度的案例分析，得到的研究成果有助于完善地铁深基坑施工安全风险评价的理论和案例研究。

关键词：地铁深基坑；施工安全风险；4M1E原则；层次分析法；集对理论

Abstract

In recent years, with the acceleration of urbanization in China, more and more permanent residents in cities bring huge pressure to urban rail transit. Subway, as an underground transportation mode, can develop underground space without affecting surface traffic, which has the advantages of less congestion and higher efficiency. Therefore, all major cities are constantly carrying out subway construction. However, in the construction of deep foundation pits in subway stations, there are many risk factors due to the changeable underground environment, complex construction conditions and other reasons. Every year, due to various risk factors, construction safety accidents such as foundation pit collapse, earth slip, and bottom uplift will be caused, resulting in huge casualties and property losses. This paper carries out an empirical analysis on the construction safety risk of deep foundation pit of subway, which is of great theoretical and practical significance.

This paper uses the 4M1E principle to systematically identify and decompose the safety risk factors that may occur during the construction of deep foundation pit in subway, and determines the safety risk index system of deep foundation pit construction. Based on the feature that set pair theory can deal with the relationship between certainty and uncertainty, set pair theory is selected as a risk assessment method, and the risk level is determined by establishing the connection degree between risk index factors and evaluation level. Completed the following work:

Firstly, this paper discusses the safety risk of deep foundation pit construction, the research status of set pair theory at home and abroad, and the basic contents of set pair theory and analytic hierarchy process. This paper compares the research status and emphases of the safety risk assessment of deep foundation pit construction at home and abroad, and points out that the risk assessment methods in these studies are difficult to fully utilize and reflect the information. Comparing the application scope of set pair theory at home and abroad, and based on the uncertainty of safety risk in subway deep foundation pit construction, the feasibility of applying set pair theory to safety risk evaluation of subway deep foundation pit construction is pointed out.

Then, based on the 4M1E principle, this paper systematically sorted out and analyzed the safety risk factors of subway deep foundation pit construction, and obtained five first-level risk index factors and 20 second-level risk index factors of "people-material-machine-method-environment". And through the analytic hierarchy process to determine the risk index factors weight; Then, on the basis of set pair theory, the evaluation data were obtained through questionnaire survey, the single-factor correlation degree between risk evaluation index and risk grade was calculated, and the total correlation degree between first-level index and risk evaluation grade was calculated by combining the weight of risk factor index. Finally, the risk evaluation level of each level risk index is determined based on the principle of maximum contact degree.

Finally, taking chengdu metro line 11 HuiLong avenue station of deep foundation pit engineering as an example, the risk evaluation model is established for the empirical analysis presented in this paper, the results show that in the subway engineering project, construction machinery and environmental factors in the larger risk level, should take measures to deal with risks as soon as possible. Personnel factors, material factors, the construction method belongs to medium risk, should be given high attention and concern for the change in the subsequent risk monitoring process.

In this paper, based on the risk evaluation method of set pair theory and the characteristics of safety risk factors of subway deep foundation pit construction, the risk evaluation model of subway deep foundation pit construction safety based on set pair theory is established. Taking huilong avenue station of chengdu metro line 11 as an example, a certain depth case analysis is carried out. The research results are helpful to improve the theory and case study of subway deep foundation pit construction safety risk evaluation.

Key Words：Metro deep foundation pit; Construction safety risks; 4M1E principle; Analytic hierarchy process; Set pair theory

目 录

第1章 绪论 1

1.1研究背景及意义 1

1.1.1研究背景 1

1.1.2研究意义 1

1.2国内外研究现状 2

1.2.1国外研究现状 2

1.2.2国内研究现状 3

1.2.3国内外研究现状分析 4

1.3研究主要内容 5

1.4研究方法及技术路线 5

1.4.1研究方法 5

1.4.2技术路线 7

第2章 基本理论概述 8

2.1地铁深基坑施工安全风险概述 8

2.2风险管理概述 10

2.2.1风险识别 10

2.2.2风险估计 10

2.2.3风险评价 11

2.2.4风险应对 12

2.3集对理论概述 13

2.4层次分析法概述 14

2.5本章小结 16

第3章 基于集对理论的地铁深基坑施工安全风险评价模型构建 17

3.1确定风险评价指标体系 17

3.2层次分析法确定指标权重 19

3.3集对理论计算各项指标联系度及总联系度 19

3.3.1计算单因素联系度 19

3.3.2计算总联系度 22

3.4确定各项指标风险评价等级 22

3.5风险应对措施 23

3.6本章小结 24

第4章 实例分析 25

4.1工程概况 25

4.1.1气象特征 25

4.1.2水文情况 25

4.1.3地质条件 26

4.1.4施工方法 26

4.2层次分析法确定指标权重 27

4.3集对理论计算各项指标联系度及总联系度 28

4.3.1计算单因素联系度 28

4.3.2计算总联系度 31

4.4确定各项指标风险评价等级 32

4.5风险应对措施 32

4.5.1施工机械因素风险应对措施 32

4.5.2环境因素风险应对措施 32

4.6本章小结 33

第5章 结论与展望 34

5.1结论 34

5.2展望 34

参考文献 35

第1章 绪论

1.1研究背景及意义

1.1.1研究背景

近年来，随着城市常住人口不断增加，城市轨道交通的压力也急剧增加，地铁作为一种地下交通工具，能在不影响传统路面交通的情况下极大缓解城市轨道交通的压力，为人们提供一种健康绿色的出行方式，深受人民喜爱和政府支持，因此各大城市都在大力发展地铁建设，开通的地铁线路不断增多，地铁运营里程也不断扩大。预计到2020年我国修建地铁的城市将超过50个，地铁运营里程将超过6000公里。^[[1]]

与地铁发展建设相对应的是地铁深基坑施工安全事故的频频发生。由于各大城市都在大规模的修建地铁，地铁深基坑工程也在如火如荼的进行中，与地面工程项目不同，地铁深基坑工程项目具有工程质量要求高，技术要求高，施工环境复杂的特点。此外，由于地铁深基坑的施工位于地表以下，地质条件难以查明，且施工中稍有不慎容易引起地质条件变化，给施工造成很多困难：例如在前期管线改迁过程中管线没有得到有效保护，可能会导致管线的损坏，维护结构施工过程中如果钢筋混凝土存在质量问题可能会导致坑壁的塌陷等等。由于存在大量不确定性，有关地铁深基坑施工安全的事故时有发生。

据有关文献统计，从2005年到2008年，每年由地铁深基坑施工安全事故导致的人员伤亡呈逐年增加的趋势，而从2009年至今，随着关于地铁深基坑施工安全管理工作的不断推进，地铁深基坑施工事故和造成的人员伤亡数量保持平稳，但每年仍会造成10人左右的人员伤亡^[[2]]，由此可以看出地铁深基坑施工安全风险仍然需要注意。