摘 要

近年来危险品在各个行业的应用越来越广泛，道路危险品货运量也在逐年增加，由此带来的危险品道路运输安全问题日益凸显。本文基于轨迹交叉理论分析了危险品道路运输事故类型和影响因素的关系，并采用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法确定事故影响因素的权重和隶属度，最终计算出危险品道路运输事故的发生概率。本文的主要内容如下：

首先，对我国危险品道路运输行业的发展背景、研究意义以及国内外相关研究现状作了介绍，并简要说明本文的研究内容、研究方法和技术路线。

然后，简要介绍了轨迹交叉理论、层次分析法和模糊综合评价法的原理步骤，并详细论述了本文对危险品道路运输事故概率的评估流程和相关要点，基于轨迹交叉理论梳理出四种事故类型和影响因素之间的关系，采用层次分析法对人、机、物、环、管5个一级影响因素和17个二级影响因素进行分析，确定出各层次影响因素的权重向量，通过利用模糊综合评价法对危险品运输事故的影响因素进行模糊综合评价，给出事故概率的计算方法。

最后，将本文的评估方法运用于实际路段，评估了某企业在321国道的危险品运输事故发生率，分析计算结果并给出针对性的建议。

相较于前人的研究，本文的研究方法得出的评估结果更为详细，能为特定路段危险品道路运输安全预防工作提供更明确、更有针对性的建议。

关键词：危险品道路运输；轨迹交叉理论；事故类型；层次分析法；模糊综合评价；事故概率评估

Abstract

In recent years, dangerous goods are more and more widely used in various industries, and the traffic volume of dangerous goods on the road is also increasing year by year. The safety problems of dangerous goods on the road are increasingly prominent. Based on the theory of track crossing, this paper analyzes the relationship between the types of road transport accidents of dangerous goods and the influencing factors, and uses the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to determine the weight and membership of the influencing factors of accidents, and finally calculates the probability of road transport accidents of dangerous goods. The main contents of this paper are as follows:

First of all, it introduces the development background, research significance and related research status at home and abroad of the dangerous goods road transportation industry in China, and briefly describes the research content, research methods and technical routes of this paper.

Then, the paper briefly introduces the principle and steps of the track crossing theory, the analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and discusses in detail the assessment process and relevant points of the probability of road transport accidents of dangerous goods in this paper. Based on the track crossing theory, it combs out the relationship between the four types of accidents and the influencing factors, and uses the analytic hierarchy process to analyze the five primary influencing factors of human, machine, object, environment and management Element and 17 secondary influencing factors are analyzed to determine the weight vector of influencing factors at all levels. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the influencing factors of dangerous goods transportation accidents, and the calculation method of accident probability is given.

Finally, the evaluation method of this paper is applied to the actual road section to evaluate the occurrence rate of dangerous goods transportation accidents of an enterprise in national highway 321, analyze the calculation results and give targeted suggestions.

Compared with the previous studies, the evaluation results of the research methods in this paper are more detailed, which can provide clearer and more targeted suggestions for the safety prevention of dangerous goods road transportation in specific sections.

Keywords: Road transportation of dangerous goods ;Trace intersecting theory; Type of accident ; AHP ; FCE ; Accident probability assessment

目 录

第1章 绪论 1

1.1研究背景与意义 1

1.1.1研究背景 1

1.1.2目的及意义 2

1.2国内外研究现状 3

1.2.1危险品道路运输风险研究现状 3

1.2.2危险品道路运输事故概率评估研究现状 3

1.3研究内容与技术路线 6

1.3.1研究内容 6

1.3.2研究方法 6

1.3.3技术路线 7

第2章 影响因素分析方法概述 8

2.1轨迹交叉理论 8

2.2层次分析法 9

2.3模糊综合评价法 11

第3章 危险品道路运输事故概率评估流程构建 12

3.1基于轨迹交叉理论的影响因素分析 12

3.1.1收集历史事故案例 12

3.1.2基于轨迹交叉理论分解事故成因 13

3.2基于层次分析法和模糊综合评价的影响因素处理 15

3.2.1基于层次分析法构建影响因素模型 15

3.2.2基于模糊综合评价计算事故概率 16

3.3定量问题处理 17

3.3.1问卷调查表设计 17

3.3.2实际数据收集 18

第4章 实例分析 20

4.1路段基本情况介绍 20

4.2确定各影响因素的权重 21

4.3事故风险概率模糊综合评价 23

4.4计算事故发生概率 24

4.5结果分析 24

第5章 总结与展望 26

5.1全文总结 26

5.2研究展望 26

参考文献 27

附 录A 28

附 录B 31

附 录C 32

致 谢 35

第1章 绪论

1.1研究背景与意义

1.1.1研究背景

危险品（Dangerous Goods，也称危险货物或危险物品）是指具有爆炸、易燃、毒害、感染、腐蚀、放射性等危险特性，在运输、储存、生产、经营、使用和处置中，容易造成人员伤亡、环境污染及财产损毁的物品^[1]。随着我国经济的快速发展，这些特殊性质使得危险品在各个行业领域的应用越来越广泛，需求量也在不断攀升，图1数据显示2012～2018年以来我国每年危险品货运量情况，其中每年有超过50%的危险品都是通过道路进行运输，由此带来的危险品道路运输安全问题日益凸显。